861 Jessees Mill Rd · Lebanon, VA 24266

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,247 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1970 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

NICE BRICK RANCH ON FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT/WITH GARAGE DOOR. PROPERTY IS SITS ON SEMI-PRIVATE HALF ACRE LOT. NEW FAMILY ROOM ADDITION WAS ADDED. 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOME, VERY CLEAN AND READY TO MOVE INTO AND CONVENIENTLY LOCATED ON DESIRABLE JESSEES MILL ROAD. COME SEE THIS ONE TODAY BEFORE ITS GONE!

Key facts

• Brick ranch
• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1970

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• SEMI-PRIVATE HALF ACRE LOT
• NEW FAMILY ROOM ADDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.7% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#115 in VA, #3,561 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Russell County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #44 of 131 in VA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lebanon Primary (238 students, 94% FRL); Lebanon Middle (math 54% / reading 70%, grade B+, #143 of 342 statewide, top 43%, 291 students, 91% FRL); Lebanon High (math 59% / reading 77%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 606 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 49% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Russell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Russell County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,854 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,582
• Equity at exit: $60,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $29,537
• Equity at exit: $85,353

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24266

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $143,869

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-56	+0% $-111	+5% $-166	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-160	+0% $-111	+5% $-61	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-70	base $-111	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-28
   listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$4,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$989
• After-tax cash flow: $-341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Russell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103420
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,970
• Composite: 54.14/100
• National rank: #1384
• State rank: #44 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lebanon

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #3561

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing D- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,688

Population outlook (Russell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,787 people
• By 2030: 24,485 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 21,750 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 19,214 · -25.5%
• By 2075: 14,500 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 10,629 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Russell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.5) · D 16.1% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -54.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -67.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.5 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+37.0 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Current HPI: 184.8412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Pending — SWVAR
• 2025-08-28 Listed $159,900 SWVAR