415 N School St · Avalon, PA 15202

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,966 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1920 3,624 sqft lot $69/sqft · 49% below area Est $264k · 49% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in Avalon! Large covered front porch! Carport for two cars in the rear! Large kitchen with plenty of updated cabinetry! Three generous sized bedrooms with large closest! Unfinished basement with additional storage! Centrally located!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Carport for two cars
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CARPORT FOR TWO CARS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.2% in Avalon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#63 in PA, #439 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-.
• Northgate SD (suburban): math 25% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #354 of 539 in PA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.93%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,772
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -48.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
647 Park Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,996 (+2%)	5mo	$350,000	$175	81
327 Elizabeth Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,904 (-3%)	4mo	$16,000	$8	79
601 Center Ave	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,981 (+1%)	3mo	$365,000	$184	74
208 Delp St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,986 (+1%)	5mo	$100,001	$50	73
712 California Ave	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,176 (+11%)	0mo	$325,000	$149	68
308 Harrison Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,732 (-12%)	6mo	$120,000	$69	64
705 Taylor Ave	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,244 (+14%)	1mo	$125,000	$56	62
1023 Hamilton Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,825 (-7%)	4mo	$221,000	$121	61
119 Harrison Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,156 (+10%)	4mo	$290,000	$135	56
233 S Starr Ave	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,826 (-7%)	3mo	$260,000	$142	56
632 Means Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,092 (+6%)	4mo	$365,000	$174	55
224 S Home Ave	0.46mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,184 (+11%)	0mo	$332,280	$152	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $20,781
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $87,056
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15202

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,265/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
421 N Ohio St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,700	$1.55	1d	1	0.26mi
713 Clinton Pl Pittsburgh, PA	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,750	$1.56	1d	1	0.40mi
555 Orchard Ave Bellevue, PA	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,295	$0.93	43d	1	0.64mi
115 Meade Ave Pittsburgh, PA	4.0	1.0	1392	$1,600	$1.15	43d	1	0.72mi
189 N Balph Ave Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	43d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    listed $140,000 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Great opportunity in Avalon! Large covered front porch! Carport for two cars in the rear! Large kitchen with plenty of updated cabinetry! Three generous sized bedrooms with large closest! Unfinished basement with additional storage! Centrally located!

15. 2026-02-26
    status Active
16. 2026-02-20
    historical Contingent
17. 2025-11-26
    status Active
18. 2025-11-23
    historical
19. 2025-09-29
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,265 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,265 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,265
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $5,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,296
• After-tax cash flow: $5,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northgate SD
• NCES district ID: 4217770
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,084
• Composite: 34.15/100
• National rank: #5279
• State rank: #354 of 539 in PA

Livability — Avalon

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #439

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avalon, PA
• County: Allegheny County · 1,022,028 people
• City population: 19,642
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 19,564
• Household income: $68,287
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 952.0

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.40%
• Current HPI: 274.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.16%
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $140,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2026-02-20 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2025-11-26 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2025-11-23 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $165,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,265 · +37.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.