33005 Hickory Ct #54 · Lenox, MI 48048

$82,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 98 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $62/sqft · 100% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bed + Bonus Den | 2016 Schult

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Haven Community Schools (suburban): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #305 of 540 in MI (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $573 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $75,439 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.07%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,964
• List price: $82,900
• Delta: 77.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33006 Primrose Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-7%)	13mo	$86,000	$69	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $17,471
• Equity at exit: $12,361

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $55,063
• Equity at exit: $7,168

Cash invested: $23,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48048

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $82,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,725
• Closing costs: $2,487
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32631 Cary Ln N New Haven, MI	4.0	2.0	1056	$1,339	$1.27	1d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $82,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $79,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 37-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $82,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $79,900 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,900 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,900 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $75,900 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    3 Bed + Bonus Den | 2016 Schult

17. 2026-04-28
    price $65,900 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    3 Bed + Bonus Den | 2016 Schult

18. 2026-04-17
    price $75,900 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    3 Bed + Bonus Den | 2016 Schult

19. 2026-04-17
    status Active 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    3 Bed + Bonus Den | 2016 Schult

20. 2026-04-17
    historical 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    3 Bed + Bonus Den | 2016 Schult

21. 2026-04-04
    price $74,900 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    3 Bed + Bonus Den | 2016 Schult

22. 2026-03-02
    listed $75,900 Active 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    3 Bed + Bonus Den | 2016 Schult

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,644
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$2,412
• Taxable income: $4,784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $4,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It has a modern kitchen and well-maintained landscaping, making it a good candidate for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,247
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6575
• State rank: #305 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lenox

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, MI
• Population (ZIP): 11,065

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Italian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.74%
• Current HPI: 242.3675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $75,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $65,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $75,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $74,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Listed $75,900 Zillow