28454 168th Ave SE #39 · Lake Morton-Berrydale, WA 98042

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured · 188 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $178/sqft · at area comps Est $209k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully appointed brand-new 3-bed/ 2-bath manufactured home nestled in the peaceful all-ages Pleasant Valley Manor Mobile Home Park. Surrounded by rolling hills and mature trees, the setting offers a serene natural backdrop that feels like a true retreat. Inside, thoughtful design shines throughout. The primary suite offers a smart, functional layout, complete with an en suite bath featuring double sinks. The stunning kitchen- anchored by a central island - opens effortlessly into the bright, open-concept living area, creating an inviting space perfect for everyday living and entertaining alike. A generous dining room sits just off the kitchen, ready to host everything f

Key facts

• Generous dining room
• Double-pane windows
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• GENEROUS DINING ROOM
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• PULLDOWN CORDLESS BLINDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.9% in Lake Morton-Berrydale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kent School District (urban): math 47% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #109 of 291 in WA (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 332 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $209k implies a 660% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $183,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.75%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,000
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28454 168th Ave SE #29	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+8%)	2mo	$209,000	$164	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,357
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $16,112
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98042

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$261 /mo · $3,135/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,828

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16830 SE Wax Rd Covington, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,458	$2.70	1d	15	0.41mi
17110 SE 276th St Covington, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,220	$2.61	1d	1	0.70mi
18025 SE 272nd St Kent, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	843	$2,675	$3.17	1d	9	1.02mi
17126 SE 269th Pl Covington, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,587	$2.71	1d	15	1.08mi
26902 169th Pl SE Covington, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	671	$2,220	$3.31	10d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $209,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,000 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 170 DOM
14. 2025-12-12
    listed $219,000 Active
15. 2007-06-15
    soldstatus $27,500
16. 2007-02-14
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,135
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,451
• − Management: −$2,451
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable income: $3,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$906
• After-tax cash flow: $5,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern manufactured home in Pleasant Valley Manor MHP is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kent School District
• NCES district ID: 5303960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,823
• Composite: 48.25/100
• National rank: #4714
• State rank: #109 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Morton-Berrydale

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Morton-Berrydale, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 119,479
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,216
• Household income: $127,552
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Subsaharan African 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -635.61%
• Current HPI: 297.7991
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+632.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Listed $219,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-15 Sold (MLS) $27,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-14 Listed $29,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid