1 Bay Dr #3602 · Kapalua, HI 96761

$300,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,019 sqft · Condo public records · 305 Days on market

Built 2008 $149/sqft · 77% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. Breathtaking views of the ocean and Molokai await you every day, during your time in this exquiste penthouse 6th floor 3 Bedroom, 3 1/2 Bath residence. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is three consecutive weeks in November each year (weeks 45, 46 & 47 "Thanksgiving"). This is one of just 3 deeded ownerships with Thanksgiving. Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 3602's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2026: Nov. 7 - 28 | 2027: Nov. 6 - 27 | 2027: Nov. 4 - 25

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• In-residence dining
• Molokai views

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• OCEAN VIEWS
• MOLOKAI VIEWS
• DEEDED OWNERSHIP
• ASSIGNED CONCIERGE
• IN-RESIDENCE DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-52k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#102 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 637 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,690/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 835% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 119% of rent.

Recommended offer $264,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: -11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -62.04%
• DSCR: -1.76
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,108
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: 77.40%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.75×
• Total profit: $-315,359
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -6.02×
• Total profit: $-590,066
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96761

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 637
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$6,765
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,195
• Net cashflow: $-4,343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,188

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Hui Rd F Lahaina, HI	3.0	2.0	2558	$6,500	$2.54	3d	1	0.83mi
10 Wailele Kai Ln Lahaina, HI	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1390	$6,160	$4.43	3d	8	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pooldoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 295 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 294 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-03-01
    historical
16. 2025-08-17
    listed $300,000 Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. Breathtaking views of the ocean and Molokai await you every day, during your time in this exquiste penthouse 6th floor 3 Bedroom, 3 1/2 Bath residence. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is three consecutive weeks in November each year (weeks 45, 46 & 47 "Thanksgiving"). This is one of just 3 deeded ownerships with Thanksgiving. Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 3602's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2026: Nov. 7 - 28 | 2027: Nov. 6 - 27 | 2027: Nov. 4 - 25

17. 2024-11-27
    soldstatus $235,000 Sold
18. 2024-10-26
    status Pending - Do not Show
19. 2024-06-28
    listed $245,000 Active
20. 2024-03-03
    price $399,000
21. 2024-03-03
    status Active
22. 2024-02-29
    historical
23. 2023-12-29
    soldstatus $162,000 Sold
24. 2023-11-25
    status Pending - Do not Show
25. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus $96,600
26. 2023-10-07
    price $175,000
27. 2023-09-07
    price $249,000
28. 2023-02-28
    listed $429,000 Active
29. 2023-02-08
    price $329,000
30. 2023-01-13
    price $275,000
31. 2022-12-31
    price $300,000
32. 2022-12-30
    price $325,000
33. 2022-12-09
    listed $399,000 Active
34. 2021-06-01
    soldstatus $240,000 Sold
35. 2020-12-24
    soldstatus $111,000 Sold
36. 2020-09-22
    price $265,000
37. 2020-03-20
    listed $399,000 Active
38. 2018-10-21
    price $195,000
39. 2018-10-21
    status Active
40. 2018-10-20
    historical
41. 2018-05-22
    historical
42. 2017-10-23
    listed $279,000 Active
43. 2017-10-11
    soldstatus $111,000 Sold
44. 2017-09-12
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
45. 2017-09-07
    price $299,000
46. 2017-06-22
    listed $315,000 Active
47. 2017-06-22
    historical
48. 2017-06-03
    price $145,000
49. 2017-04-25
    price $155,000
50. 2017-03-12
    price $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,463
• − Management: −$5,463
• − HOA: −$81,180
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$55,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-38,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Kapalua

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #20456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kapalua, HI
• County: Maui County · 114,195 people
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• Population (ZIP): 20,952
• Household income: $101,123
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 835.0

Population outlook (Maui County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 185,013 people
• By 2030: 194,315 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 210,917 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 226,396 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 270,475 · +46.2%
• By 2100: 316,825 · +71.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Asian 29% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 12% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maui

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.9) · D 61.9% · R 36.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 55.2pp · 2024: 25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.9 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+38.6 2012: D+50.3 2008: D+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.68%
• Current HPI: 389.2894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+251.4% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2025-08-17 Listed $300,000 RAM MLS
• 2024-11-27 Sold (MLS) $235,000 RAM MLS
• 2024-10-26 Pending — RAM MLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed $245,000 RAM MLS
• 2024-03-03 Price Changed $399,000 RAM MLS
• 2024-03-03 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2023-12-29 Sold (MLS) $162,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-11-25 Pending — RAM MLS
• 2023-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $96,600 Public Records
• 2023-10-07 Price Changed $175,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $249,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-02-28 Listed $429,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-02-08 Price Changed $329,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-01-13 Price Changed $275,000 RAM MLS
• 2022-12-31 Price Changed $300,000 RAM MLS
• 2022-12-30 Price Changed $325,000 RAM MLS
• 2022-12-09 Listed $399,000 RAM MLS
• 2021-06-01 Sold (MLS) $240,000 RAM MLS
• 2020-12-24 Sold (MLS) $111,000 RAM MLS
• 2020-09-22 Price Changed $265,000 RAM MLS
• 2020-03-20 Listed $399,000 RAM MLS
• 2018-10-21 Price Changed $195,000 RAM MLS
• 2018-10-21 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2018-10-20 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2018-05-22 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2017-10-23 Listed $279,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-10-11 Sold (MLS) $111,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-09-12 Contingent — RAM MLS
• 2017-09-07 Price Changed $299,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-06-22 Listed $315,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-06-22 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2017-06-03 Price Changed $145,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-04-25 Price Changed $155,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-03-12 Price Changed $175,000 RAM MLS
• 2016-12-21 Price Changed $199,000 RAM MLS
• 2016-10-10 Listed $315,000 RAM MLS
• 2016-05-20 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2015-12-21 Listed $299,000 RAM MLS
• 2015-11-07 Price Changed $299,000 RAM MLS
• 2015-09-12 Price Changed $350,000 RAM MLS
• 2015-07-30 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2015-05-15 Sold (MLS) $385,000 RAM MLS
• 2015-04-20 Pending — RAM MLS
• 2015-04-03 Listed $397,500 RAM MLS
• 2015-04-03 Listed $535,000 RAM MLS
• 2015-04-03 Listed $415,000 RAM MLS
• 2013-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $85,368 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $71,570 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.