1245 Catalina Dr · Pattison, TX 77423

$239,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition 5,080 sqft lot $134/sqft · 42% below area Est $410k · 42% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Primary suite
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,180
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -41.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32803 Teal St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (+10%)	21mo	$425,000	$216	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-37,755
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-48,931
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,598/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,188

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $239,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $258,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $258,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $258,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $258,900 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

15. 2026-05-06
    price $258,900 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

16. 2026-03-03
    listed $263,900 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

17. 2026-02-13
    listed $263,900 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,598
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$2,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$581
• After-tax cash flow: $2,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations, focusing on kitchen and bathroom updates, flooring refinishing, and landscaping improvements to significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — Significant wear and tear, likely requiring replacement.
• Major bathroom fixtures — Visible signs of wear, likely requiring replacement.
• Major flooring — Worn appearance, likely requiring refinishing or replacement.
• Major interior paint — Faded appearance, likely requiring repainting.
• Major landscaping — Could benefit from updates to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Floor refinishing — Refinished floors can improve the home's overall appearance and value.
• Both Landscaping updates — Enhanced landscaping can greatly improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Kitchen cabinets and fixtures replacement — New cabinets and fixtures can greatly improve the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Bathroom fixtures replacement — New fixtures can significantly enhance the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and can prevent costly repairs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Significant wear and tear, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Visible signs of wear, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn appearance, likely requiring refinishing or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Faded appearance, likely requiring repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Could benefit from updates to enhance curb appeal and value.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Floor refinishing — Refinished floors can improve the home's overall appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping updates — Enhanced landscaping can greatly improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen cabinets and fixtures replacement — New cabinets and fixtures can greatly improve the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures replacement — New fixtures can significantly enhance the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and can prevent costly repairs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $258,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $258,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Listed $263,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $263,900 Zillow