148 Kingsley Ave · Palo Alto, CA 94301

$5,495,000

7 bd · 8.0 ba · 5,806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2000 10,000 sqft lot $946/sqft · 44% below area Est $6884k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Imagine the possibilities! Such a special fairytale jewel box home on one of Palo Alto's most coveted streets Kingsley in old Palo Alto. Freshened up with gorgeous new colorful landscaping, fresh new turf in front and back yards, new paint in the main home, come see this enchanting estate that is walking distance to all that makes Palo Alto special. Walk or bike to Stanford, town and country shopping plaza, Elizabeth gamble garden etc. Featuring three separate structures, the entire home was lovingly designed and built by the current owner for his family. Gorgeous oak floors and warm inviting rooms, included a marble tile sunroom offer special places for friends and family to gather. The back cottage and detached garage/office space provide ample living area for visiting friends or extended family. You can't miss this special home!

Key facts

• Marble tile sunroom
• Back cottage
• New turf

Tags

• NEW COLORFUL LANDSCAPING
• NEW TURF
• MARBLE TILE SUNROOM
• BACK COTTAGE
• DETACHED GARAGE OFFICE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 4,060

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 3-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Detached property; 3 stories
• Construction: Other foundation
• Exterior features: Wood shakes/shingles roof; R1 zoning

Interior

• Bedrooms: 7 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 6 full baths; 2 half baths
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating; Central forced air cooling
• Interior features: Separate family room; Dining area; Has fireplace (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/8.0-bath single-family listed at $5.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28k ($-332k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $605k (89.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $695k (87.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $605k (89.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 0.2% vs local median 0.4% in Palo Alto — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#19 in CA, #821 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Palo Alto Unified (urban): math 79% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #19 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walter Hays Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #122 of 1,571 statewide, top 8%, 294 students, 17% FRL); Palo Alto High (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #21 of 1,170 statewide, top 2%, 1,992 students, 10% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($242k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $90k of equity ($38k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$328k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($5.33M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $360k; list at $5.50M implies a 1426% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $604,777 (89.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 89% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.13% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.59%
• DSCR: 0.04
• GRM: 65.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $6,883,999
• List price: $5,495,000
• Delta: -20.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1650 Waverley St	0.43mi	6/6.0 (-1)	5,787 (-0%)	12mo	$17,998,000	$3,110	56
543 Seale Ave	0.70mi	7/6.5	5,673 (-2%)	1mo	$13,500,000	$2,380	56
265 Coleridge Ave	0.34mi	6/7.0 (-1)	5,153 (-11%)	3mo	$10,388,888	$2,016	54
543 Tennyson Ave	0.63mi	7/6.5	5,756 (-1%)	15mo	$13,350,000	$2,319	50
1932 Emerson St	0.63mi	6/6.0 (-1)	5,310 (-8%)	1mo	$9,800,000	$1,846	43
1480 Byron St	0.55mi	8/7.5 (+1)	5,272 (-9%)	21mo	$8,580,000	$1,627	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.94% appreciation · 7.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-1,646,829
• Equity at exit: $1,859,287

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-2,559,482
• Equity at exit: $2,458,033

Cash invested: $1,538,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94301

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 65.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,816
• Tax from tax record: −$2,068 /mo · $24,818/yr
• Insurance: −$2,290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,460
• Net cashflow: $-27,682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $41,993

Max offer price $604,777

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,373,750
• Closing costs: $164,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $5,495,000 Active 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Imagine the possibilities! Such a special fairytale jewel box home on one of Palo Alto's most coveted streets Kingsley in old Palo Alto. Freshened up with gorgeous new colorful landscaping, fresh new turf in front and back yards, new paint in the main home, come see this enchanting estate that is walking distance to all that makes Palo Alto special. Walk or bike to Stanford, town and country shopping plaza, Elizabeth gamble garden etc. Featuring three separate structures, the entire home was lovingly designed and built by the current owner for his family. Gorgeous oak floors and warm inviting rooms, included a marble tile sunroom offer special places for friends and family to gather. The back cottage and detached garage/office space provide ample living area for visiting friends or extended family. You can't miss this special home!

15. 2026-05-15
    listed $5,495,000 Active 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    Imagine the possibilities! Such a special fairytale jewel box home on one of Palo Alto's most coveted streets Kingsley in old Palo Alto. Freshened up with gorgeous new colorful landscaping, fresh new turf in front and back yards, new paint in the main home, come see this enchanting estate that is walking distance to all that makes Palo Alto special. Walk or bike to Stanford, town and country shopping plaza, Elizabeth gamble garden etc. Featuring three separate structures, the entire home was lovingly designed and built by the current owner for his family. Gorgeous oak floors and warm inviting rooms, included a marble tile sunroom offer special places for friends and family to gather. The back cottage and detached garage/office space provide ample living area for visiting friends or extended family. You can't miss this special home!

16. 2025-11-12
    historical
17. 2025-09-12
    listed Active
18. 2025-05-16
    historical
19. 2025-04-16
    historical
20. 2025-04-06
    price
21. 2025-03-21
    price
22. 2025-01-09
    listed Active
23. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $360,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $24,818 · $2,068/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $41,762 · $3,480/mo
• Expected delta: +$16,944/yr (+$1,412/mo · 68.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $83,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$307,805
• − Property taxes: −$24,818
• − Insurance: −$27,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,673
• − Management: −$6,673
• − Depreciation: −$159,855
• Taxable loss: −$449,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$107,972
• After-tax cash flow: $-224,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palo Alto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629610
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $124,038
• Composite: 74.33/100
• National rank: #161
• State rank: #19 of 517 in CA

Livability — Palo Alto

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #821

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palo Alto, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 44,691
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,508
• Household income: $242,006
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 609.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Asian 26% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 32% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Chinese 8% Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.94%
• Current HPI: 339.4966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.38%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1426.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $5,495,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-15 Listed $5,495,000 MLSListings
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-12 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-05-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-06 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-01-09 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $24,818 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.