649 Maria Elena Way · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77327

$169,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Cottage Collection "Idlewood" Plan with Elevation "C". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level home
• Open floorplan

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL HOME
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte Prop Assoc.; Annual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island; Breakfast bar; Pantry / walk-in pantry; Open to family and dining areas
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor); Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen/dining combo

🏗️ New construction. The $169,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $135,456.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hardin El (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 607 students, 67% FRL); Hardin J H (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 316 students, 60% FRL); Hardin H S (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 394 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $937 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,707 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,456
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
996 County Road 2145	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+11%)	21mo	$150,000	$96	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,068
• Equity at exit: $20,197

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $18,072
• Equity at exit: $11,712

Cash invested: $37,928 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$710
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,032/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $135,456

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $253	+0% $206	+5% $159	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $142	+0% $206	+5% $270	+10% $334
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $241	base $206	+0.5pp $171	+1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,864
• Closing costs: $4,064
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,490 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,490 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $169,490 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 516-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $186,490 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,588
• − Property taxes: −$2,032
• − Insurance: −$2,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$3,941
• Taxable income: $440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Big Thicket Lake Estates is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, bathrooms, and hardwood flooring. The home is move-in ready with minimal repairs and maintenance needed. Potential value-adding updates include painting, landscaping, smart home features, and appliance upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can improve the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can improve the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 35.54/100
• National rank: #4907
• State rank: #354 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $186,490 HARMLS