44 Private Road 4501 · Liberty, TX 77535

$129,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 648 sqft · Manufactured public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1977 1.00 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this charming property. It is a MH with home addition. Featuring a gas fireplace, cover carport that can hold 7 cars. Ther is a small smoke house and a barn/Storage area. On Apporx 1 acre. Nestled in the country but not far from Mont Belvieu and I 10.

Key facts

• Cover carport
• Approx 1 acre
• Home addition

Tags

• HOME ADDITION
• GAS FIREPLACE
• COVER CARPORT
• BARN STORAGE AREA
• APPROX 1 ACRE
• COUNTRY LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: On‑site barns/stables
• HOA & community: Association allows RV parking

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Detached carport; Additional parking; Carport with 7 spaces
• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Residential property; 1,500 living area
• Construction: Built in 1977; Aluminum siding; Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Free‑standing range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; Two primary bedrooms (both on the first floor); Other bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Concrete floors; Laminate floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window units for cooling
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace (1); Accessible common area
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.6% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#489 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kimmie M Brown El (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 845 students, 82% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.12%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $402
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $27,951
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,362/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,075

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-01-22
    listed $129,900 Active
15. 2025-12-31
    historical
16. 2025-09-11
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,015/yr (+$85/mo · 74.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,362
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,063
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$495
• After-tax cash flow: $3,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #9688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 16,617
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $139,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,362 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.