907 Spruce St · Southport, NY 14904

$98,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1950 6,400 sqft lot Est $109k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath, ranch situated on spacious lot, offering convenient one level living. Home has an unfinished basement with plenty of storage and potential for additional living space. Enjoy the large deck and spacious yard with plenty of room for entertaining or garden.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Spacious yard
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE DECK
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 6.5% in Southport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#690 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, employment D, health & safety D.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.68%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
928 Cedar	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	940 (+1%)	12mo	$110,000	$117	77
820 Hazel St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+11%)	7mo	$147,187	$143	70
635 Newtown St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	913 (-2%)	8mo	$123,500	$135	68
284 Universal Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (-4%)	4mo	$159,900	$180	62
61 Dalrymple Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+1%)	4mo	$75,000	$80	61
266 Robert St	0.56mi	3/1.0	864 (-7%)	5mo	$95,000	$110	58
719 Dubois St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+9%)	4mo	$120,000	$119	55
268 Robert St	0.56mi	3/1.0	828 (-11%)	4mo	$75,000	$91	53
650 Medina St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	857 (-8%)	17mo	$45,000	$53	42
975 Sebring Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	796 (-14%)	8mo	$100,900	$127	38
604 Spruce St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-15%)	12mo	$79,000	$100	35
235 Marion St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	828 (-11%)	14mo	$72,500	$88	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $9,986
• Equity at exit: $14,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $42,249
• Equity at exit: $8,551

Cash invested: $27,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,484/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $98,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,725
• Closing costs: $2,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
235 Allen St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	43d	1	0.72mi
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	43d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 282-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $98,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,540
• − Property taxes: −$1,484
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$2,877
• Taxable income: $3,533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$848
• After-tax cash flow: $4,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southport

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #13026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southport, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B