2428 Edwards Ln · Bel Air South, MD 21028

$374,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2007 Est $341k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Country Rancher setting on a corner lot. Spacey 2-car garage. Finished deck and unfinished basement. New roof replaced in 2025! Centrally located to Bel Air, Aberdeen, Havre De Grace, and 10 minutes from I-95.

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Centrally located
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FINISHED DECK
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• NEW ROOF
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $369k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $369,276 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.49%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $341,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 Calvary Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+1%)	6mo	$345,000	$265	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $108,963
• Equity at exit: $156,585

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $296,919
• Equity at exit: $232,381

Cash invested: $104,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21028

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,038/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $1,180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,007

Max offer price $374,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,725
• Closing costs: $11,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Calvary Rd Churchville, MD	3.0	1.5	1373	$4,500	$3.28	43d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $374,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $374,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 209-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $374,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,038 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,562 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$524/yr (+$44/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,000
• − Property taxes: −$3,038
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$10,906
• Taxable income: $8,541
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,050
• After-tax cash flow: $12,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 63,895
• Population (ZIP): 2,872

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.43%
• Current HPI: 263.1997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+837.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $374,900 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $369,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $379,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $389,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $409,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 2003-03-08 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-02-28 Sold (MLS) $42,500 MRIS
• 2003-02-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-02-10 Listed $40,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,038 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.