3012 Springtime Ave · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$70,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 $595/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2026 Champion Prime Vertex - 3 Bed, 2 Bath Built for modern, low maintenance living, this brand new single width Vertex model features a well balanced 16×66' layout with an open living space, contemporary kitchen, and three comfortable bedrooms. The bright interior, clean finishes, and efficient design make this home both practical and inviting from day one. Great location and peaceful community with very nice amenities. Contact us today!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3012 Springtime Ave, Louisville, KY 40272
• Financial info: List price $70,995
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $595

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property; Spec home
• Construction: Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,056

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Vertex - Autumn Lake plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $71k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $71k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $491 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,865 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.10%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,213
• Equity at exit: $10,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $16,434
• Equity at exit: $6,138

Cash invested: $19,879 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$372
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$89 /mo · $1,065/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$595
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $70,995

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,749
• Closing costs: $2,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12306 Glengrove Cir Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1215	$1,976	$1.63	1d	36	0.59mi
13217 Forge Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,495	$1.37	1d	1	0.83mi
5402 Logwood Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,375	$1.45	11d	1	0.89mi
7019 James Madison Way Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,750	$1.27	1d	1	1.02mi
11711 Wiltonwood Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,459	$1.22	11d	1	1.02mi
6902 Betsy Ross Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	14d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $595 · $7,140/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,995 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,995 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,995 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,995 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,995 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,995 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,995 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,995 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,995 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,995 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,995 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,995 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,995 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,977
• − Property taxes: −$1,065
• − Insurance: −$355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − HOA: −$7,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,065
• Taxable income: $2,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$535
• After-tax cash flow: $2,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B