2540 Guineas Ln · Aubrey, TX 76227

$258,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $156/sqft · 31% below area Est $376k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-369/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Aubrey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#332 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hl Brockett (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 529 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 2643 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 83d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $222,673 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,926
• List price: $258,999
• Delta: -31.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
683 Arabian DR	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-6%)	14mo	$875,000	$565	72
312 Perkins Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-0%)	6mo	$325,000	$197	63
11 Woodhaven Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,738 (+5%)	7mo	$325,000	$187	63
118 Perkins Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,498 (-10%)	4mo	$314,900	$210	60
120 Perkins Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-6%)	13mo	$329,000	$212	58
203 Surveyors Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,518 (-8%)	4mo	$320,000	$211	50
210 Kruger Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-6%)	15mo	$325,000	$209	46
9053 Ike Byrom Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-8%)	23mo	$525,000	$343	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-50,420
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-71,510
• Equity at exit: $22,393

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $247,999 ($171/sqft)
• Median days on market: 12 d
• This list price: 63% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +33.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 2643
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,227 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $254,548

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $59	+0% $-31	+5% $-120	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-119	+0% $-31	+5% $57	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $35	base $-31	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1011 Pecos St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,300	$1.13	139d	1	0.94mi
1002 Pecos St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$1,875	$1.18	20d	1	0.95mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	112d	1	0.97mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,095	$1.30	2d	1	0.97mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,250	$1.39	89d	1	0.97mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	103d	1	0.97mi
561 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,950	$1.34	42d	1	1.01mi
1024 Runnels Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	3.0	2064	$2,650	$1.28	4d	1	1.02mi
9108 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,900	$1.39	108d	1	1.02mi
1000 Mason St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$2,200	$1.43	139d	1	1.04mi
685 Coleman St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1869	$2,300	$1.23	76d	1	1.04mi
502 Brumley Rd Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	139d	1	1.05mi
1004 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,995	$1.33	12d	1	1.14mi
1000 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	2119	$2,595	$1.22	7d	1	1.15mi
1000 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	2119	$2,595	$1.22	139d	1	1.15mi
225 Glenview Dr Unit Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2020	$2,250	$1.11	82d	1	1.16mi
635 Frio Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,350	$1.16	0d	1	1.18mi
233 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$1,900	$1.41	51d	1	1.20mi
229 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$1,900	$1.41	51d	1	1.21mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	139d	1	1.21mi
925 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,100	$1.50	19d	1	1.22mi
901 King St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	1761	$2,425	$1.38	61d	1	1.26mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	114d	1	1.27mi
500 E Highmeadow Dr Aubrey, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$1,786	$1.85	0d	13	1.35mi
8869 Liberty Rd Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,150	$1.03	71d	1	1.41mi
9808 High Banker Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,998	$1.57	84d	1	1.41mi
9808 High Banker Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,998	$1.56	116d	1	1.41mi
9808 High Banker Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,998	$1.56	94d	1	1.41mi
9905 Autumn Leaves Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,249	$1.11	78d	1	1.45mi
9812 Autumn Leaves Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2080	$2,300	$1.11	26d	1	1.47mi
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	100d	1	1.48mi
10108 Autumn Leaves Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,450	$1.21	117d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-24
   days on market $258,999 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $258,999 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $258,999 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,999 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   remarks 403-char remark
6. 2026-06-17
   listed $258,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,138
• − Management: −$2,138
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$4,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,146
• After-tax cash flow: $777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,280–$24,840 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. Upgrades in painting, landscaping, and smart home features can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hl Brockett C TX #621/4,322 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 Middle Aubrey Middle D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Aubrey H S D+ TX #482/1,632 Nat'l #5,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Aubrey

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #7241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 62,127
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

---

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B