173 Candlelight Meadow Dr #173 · Big Sky, MT 59716

$850,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,859 sqft · Condo · 202 Days on market

Built 2002 $457/sqft · 16% below area Est $1014k · 16% under $897/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 173 Candlelight Meadow Drive, a well-kept 3-bedroom, 3-bath Firelight Chalet in one of Big Sky’s most convenient neighborhoods. This end-unit offers added privacy and a quiet setting with open space right outside. You’re a short walk or quick drive from Town Center, with easy access to dining, shops, the BASE community center, and year-round events. Outdoor access is a key advantage—Big Sky Resort and Lone Mountain Ranch are 10–15 minutes away, and nearby trails, the Gallatin River, and day trips to Yellowstone or Bozeman are all close at hand. Inside, you’ll find vaulted ceilings, generous natural light, and a newly installed high-efficiency pellet stove. The main level flows comfortably between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. Three bedrooms and three full baths provide practical space for guests or full-time living, and the fresh, bright interior paint gives the home a clean, updated feel. For convenience, two overflow parking spaces sit directly across the driveway—ideal for guests or additional vehicles.

Key facts

• Added privacy
• Open space
• Quiet setting

Tags

• ADDED PRIVACY
• QUIET SETTING
• OPEN SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPS
• OUTDOOR ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $442k (48.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (41.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $442k (48.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#113 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Big Sky School K-12 (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 116 in MT (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $77k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $71k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$123k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $441,774 (48.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.22%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,014,322
• List price: $850,000
• Delta: -16.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $191,151
• Equity at exit: $667,102

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $690,607
• Equity at exit: $1,345,072

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59716

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,062 /mo · $12,750/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$897
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-2,821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,571

Max offer price $441,774

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 Candlelight Meadow Dr Big Sky, MT	3.0	3.0	2135	$5,000	$2.34	44d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $897 · $10,764/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $850,000 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $850,000 Active 201 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $850,000 Active 200 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $850,000 Active 199 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $850,000 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $850,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $850,000 Active 193 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $850,000 Active 192 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $850,000 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $850,000 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $850,000 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $850,000 Active 186 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $850,000 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $850,000 Active 184 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    price $850,000 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1077 chars)

    Welcome to 173 Candlelight Meadow Drive, a well-kept 3-bedroom, 3-bath Firelight Chalet in one of Big Sky’s most convenient neighborhoods. This end-unit offers added privacy and a quiet setting with open space right outside. You’re a short walk or quick drive from Town Center, with easy access to dining, shops, the BASE community center, and year-round events. Outdoor access is a key advantage—Big Sky Resort and Lone Mountain Ranch are 10–15 minutes away, and nearby trails, the Gallatin River, and day trips to Yellowstone or Bozeman are all close at hand. Inside, you’ll find vaulted ceilings, generous natural light, and a newly installed high-efficiency pellet stove. The main level flows comfortably between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. Three bedrooms and three full baths provide practical space for guests or full-time living, and the fresh, bright interior paint gives the home a clean, updated feel. For convenience, two overflow parking spaces sit directly across the driveway—ideal for guests or additional vehicles.

16. 2026-04-18
    price $899,000 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1077 chars)

    Welcome to 173 Candlelight Meadow Drive, a well-kept 3-bedroom, 3-bath Firelight Chalet in one of Big Sky’s most convenient neighborhoods. This end-unit offers added privacy and a quiet setting with open space right outside. You’re a short walk or quick drive from Town Center, with easy access to dining, shops, the BASE community center, and year-round events. Outdoor access is a key advantage—Big Sky Resort and Lone Mountain Ranch are 10–15 minutes away, and nearby trails, the Gallatin River, and day trips to Yellowstone or Bozeman are all close at hand. Inside, you’ll find vaulted ceilings, generous natural light, and a newly installed high-efficiency pellet stove. The main level flows comfortably between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. Three bedrooms and three full baths provide practical space for guests or full-time living, and the fresh, bright interior paint gives the home a clean, updated feel. For convenience, two overflow parking spaces sit directly across the driveway—ideal for guests or additional vehicles.

17. 2026-01-26
    price $925,000 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1077 chars)

    Welcome to 173 Candlelight Meadow Drive, a well-kept 3-bedroom, 3-bath Firelight Chalet in one of Big Sky’s most convenient neighborhoods. This end-unit offers added privacy and a quiet setting with open space right outside. You’re a short walk or quick drive from Town Center, with easy access to dining, shops, the BASE community center, and year-round events. Outdoor access is a key advantage—Big Sky Resort and Lone Mountain Ranch are 10–15 minutes away, and nearby trails, the Gallatin River, and day trips to Yellowstone or Bozeman are all close at hand. Inside, you’ll find vaulted ceilings, generous natural light, and a newly installed high-efficiency pellet stove. The main level flows comfortably between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. Three bedrooms and three full baths provide practical space for guests or full-time living, and the fresh, bright interior paint gives the home a clean, updated feel. For convenience, two overflow parking spaces sit directly across the driveway—ideal for guests or additional vehicles.

18. 2025-11-28
    listed $950,000 Active 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1077 chars)

    Welcome to 173 Candlelight Meadow Drive, a well-kept 3-bedroom, 3-bath Firelight Chalet in one of Big Sky’s most convenient neighborhoods. This end-unit offers added privacy and a quiet setting with open space right outside. You’re a short walk or quick drive from Town Center, with easy access to dining, shops, the BASE community center, and year-round events. Outdoor access is a key advantage—Big Sky Resort and Lone Mountain Ranch are 10–15 minutes away, and nearby trails, the Gallatin River, and day trips to Yellowstone or Bozeman are all close at hand. Inside, you’ll find vaulted ceilings, generous natural light, and a newly installed high-efficiency pellet stove. The main level flows comfortably between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. Three bedrooms and three full baths provide practical space for guests or full-time living, and the fresh, bright interior paint gives the home a clean, updated feel. For convenience, two overflow parking spaces sit directly across the driveway—ideal for guests or additional vehicles.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$12,750
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − HOA: −$10,764
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable loss: −$49,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,929
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Sky School K-12
• NCES district ID: 3000654
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $64,215
• Composite: 44.53/100
• National rank: #2791
• State rank: #17 of 116 in MT

Livability — Big Sky

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #11337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Sky, MT
• City population: 1,867
• Population (ZIP): 1,867

Population outlook (Gallatin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,625 people
• By 2030: 144,940 · +11.8%
• By 2040: 176,266 · +36.0%
• By 2050: 209,250 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 294,207 · +127.0%
• By 2100: 360,558 · +178.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 4% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gallatin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 46.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 3.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.2 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+1.0 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.37%
• Current HPI: 308.041
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $850,000 BSCMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $899,000 BSCMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $925,000 BSCMLS
• 2025-11-28 Listed $950,000 BSCMLS