Atlas Plan · Panama City Beach, FL 32407

$359,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,582 sqft · Townhouse · 67 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Atlas by Fischer Homes offers a beautifully designed open floor plan with an island kitchen, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The main level features a kitchen, living room, and dining room, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy ample closet space throughout the home. Optional features like an electric fireplace provide additional style and comfort, making the Atlas a versatile and inviting home.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Island kitchen
• Ample closet space

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE

🏗️ New construction. The $359,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $427,628.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-853 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $266,167 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.54%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,628
• List price: $359,995
• Delta: -15.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9900 S Thomas Dr #2228	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,525 (-4%)	1mo	$560,000	$367	67
9900 Thomas Dr #2028	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,525 (-4%)	3mo	$550,000	$361	66
9902 S Thomas Dr #533	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,681 (+6%)	1mo	$330,000	$196	66
9902 S Thomas Dr #834	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,681 (+6%)	1mo	$365,000	$217	66
9860 S Thomas Dr #801	0.45mi	3/3.0	1,483 (-6%)	1mo	$462,500	$312	66
9860 S Thomas Dr #1001	0.45mi	3/3.0	1,483 (-6%)	1mo	$420,000	$283	66
9900 S Thomas Dr #1301	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,416 (-10%)	1mo	$595,000	$420	56
10611 Front Beach Rd Unit 2201	0.72mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,637 (+4%)	0mo	$852,000	$520	50
9450 S Thomas Dr Unit 604BB	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-13%)	2mo	$620,000	$449	37
9450 S Thomas Dr Unit 1702C	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-13%)	3mo	$530,000	$384	37
9450 S Thomas Dr Unit 1704BB	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-13%)	3mo	$590,000	$428	37
9450 S Thomas Dr Unit 702B	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-13%)	3mo	$645,000	$467	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-131,352
• Equity at exit: $63,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-214,277
• Equity at exit: $36,973

Cash invested: $119,736 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,662 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,243
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$535 /mo · $6,414/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-853

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,741

Max offer price $304,267

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-557	-5% $-705	+0% $-853	+5% $-1,000	+10% $-1,148
Rent	-10% $-1,063	-5% $-958	+0% $-853	+5% $-747	+10% $-642
Rate	-1.0pp $-637	-0.5pp $-744	base $-853	+0.5pp $-963	+1.0pp $-1,076

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,907
• Closing costs: $12,829
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,947	$1.88	14d	12	0.29mi
9815 S Thomas Dr Unit 1523339P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$4,018	$3.19	22d	1	0.43mi
9902 S Thomas Dr Unit 1354966P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,970	$1.56	14d	1	0.43mi
104 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523320P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1496	$5,020	$3.36	14d	1	0.50mi
998 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523366P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$4,124	$3.87	14d	1	0.52mi
10625 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354975P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$3,166	$2.78	14d	1	0.74mi
135 Grande Island Blvd Unit 1355007P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.5	1797	$2,759	$1.54	22d	1	0.81mi
10811 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354928P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$3,463	$2.90	14d	1	0.87mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	14d	1	0.95mi
2858 Joan Ave Unit 1523343P Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	1754	$5,270	$3.00	14d	1	0.98mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	22d	1	1.00mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	14d	2	1.01mi
10400 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1151	$2,372	$2.06	14d	20	1.04mi
98 Paddock Club Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,063	$1.89	14d	19	1.05mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	14d	18	1.06mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	14d	1	1.09mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	14d	12	1.18mi
104 White Cap Way Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$2,700	$2.36	22d	1	1.25mi
410 Foxtail Way Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,750	$1.64	22d	1	1.26mi
11222 Hutchison Blvd Unit 1523347P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$3,907	$3.27	22d	1	1.26mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	14d	1	1.28mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	22d	1	1.28mi
520 N Richard Jackson Blvd #1912 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,375	$1.98	14d	1	1.29mi
175 White Cap Way Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$1,750	$1.22	14d	1	1.31mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	22d	1	1.33mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	22d	1	1.38mi
8623 N Lagoon Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $359,995 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $359,995 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,995 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,995 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,995 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,995 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $359,995 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,995 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,995 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $359,995 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,995 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,995 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $359,995 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,995 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,995 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,995 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,995 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $359,995 Active 45 DOM
19. 2026-04-15
    listed $359,995 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    The Atlas by Fischer Homes offers a beautifully designed open floor plan with an island kitchen, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The main level features a kitchen, living room, and dining room, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy ample closet space throughout the home. Optional features like an electric fireplace provide additional style and comfort, making the Atlas a versatile and inviting home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,954
• − Property taxes: −$6,414
• − Insurance: −$2,138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,555
• − Management: −$2,555
• − Depreciation: −$12,440
• Taxable loss: −$18,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,348
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $359,995 Zillow