8201 Hickory Ave · Gary, IN 46403

$239,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1963 7,187 sqft lot $180/sqft · at area comps Est $285k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Terrific Investment Opportunity, or Update and make this Affordable Home your Own. This 3 Bedroom, 1,600' Sq. ft. Open Concept Brick Home with a Newer 2.5 Car Garage is Located in the Well-Kept Lakewood Hills Neighborhood of Miller. Amenities Include: Formal Living and Dining Rooms, Den, Parquet Flooring, and a Fenced Yard. Updates Include: Windows and Architectural Roof. The Interior is in need of Minor Cosmetic Updates. With its Close Proximity to Lake Michigan Beaches, Marquette Park, South Shore Train Station, Major Highways, Restaurants, Shopping, Entertainment, this Home is a Truly MUST-SEE!

Key facts

• Newer garage
• Fenced yard
• 7,187 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT BRICK HOME
• NEWER GARAGE
• FENCED YARD
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with approximately 2.5 vehicle spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Built in 1963
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Neighborhood view; Fenced yard; Brick exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-745/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,850/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 656% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,991 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,538
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -15.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
910 N Vanderburg St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,336 (0%)	5mo	$249,900	$187	65
7704 Maple Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+1%)	11mo	$205,000	$153	62
8000 Maple Ave	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,226 (-8%)	2mo	$275,000	$224	54
665 Morgan St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	22mo	$295,000	$219	50
1045 N Shelby St	0.51mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,250 (-6%)	7mo	$291,000	$233	49
8632 Oak Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+8%)	2mo	$387,500	$269	48
7155 Hemlock Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,155 (-14%)	0mo	$150,000	$130	44
820 N Vanderburg St	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+8%)	19mo	$209,900	$146	38
8713 Pine Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (-5%)	24mo	$410,000	$323	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-42,884
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-42,658
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46403

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,986/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $228,930

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $6	+0% $-62	+5% $-130	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-135	+0% $-62	+5% $11	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-1	base $-62	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1070 N Warren St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	0d	1	0.78mi
7009 E 1st Ave Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1680	$2,575	$1.53	19d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $239,900 Active 604-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,986 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$27/yr (+$2/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,986
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,189
• After-tax cash flow: $444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,929
• Household income: $45,991
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 656.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.41%
• Current HPI: 294.0935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $239,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,986 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.