18 Little Pond Rd · Altmar, NY 13493

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1996 1.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 18 Little Pond Road in Williamstown, NY. This home has 3 bedrooms and 1 and 1/2 baths, situated on 1.46 acres. A spacious 28 x 16 living room addition provides ample space for everyday living and entertaining. The screened-in back porch offers a peaceful place to relax and enjoy the outdoors. Recent updates include a new furnace, appliances, flooring, kitchen lighting, and a remodeled full bathroom. A detached garage with power provides excellent storage for vehicles, equipment, and recreational toys. Conveniently located with easy access to snowmobile trails and just a short drive to the Salmon River, Lake Ontario, and Oneida Lake, offering year-round outdoor recreation. Ideal as a primary residence, seasonal retreat, or investment property.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Living room addition
• 1.46 acre lot

Tags

• LIVING ROOM ADDITION
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• NEW FURNACE
• REMODELED FULL BATHROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE WITH POWER
• SHORT DRIVE TO SALMON RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($935/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in Altmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,077 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #573 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $115k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $67,590
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $195,123
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13493

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,281/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $110	+0% $78	+5% $45	+10% $13
Rent	-10% $-6	-5% $36	+0% $78	+5% $120	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $107	base $78	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    status Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Welcome to 18 Little Pond Road in Williamstown, NY. This home has 3 bedrooms and 1 and 1/2 baths, situated on 1.46 acres. A spacious 28 x 16 living room addition provides ample space for everyday living and entertaining. The screened-in back porch offers a peaceful place to relax and enjoy the outdoors. Recent updates include a new furnace, appliances, flooring, kitchen lighting, and a remodeled full bathroom. A detached garage with power provides excellent storage for vehicles, equipment, and recreational toys. Conveniently located with easy access to snowmobile trails and just a short drive to the Salmon River, Lake Ontario, and Oneida Lake, offering year-round outdoor recreation. Ideal as a primary residence, seasonal retreat, or investment property.

17. 2026-02-10
    historical Active Under Contract 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Welcome to 18 Little Pond Road in Williamstown, NY. This home has 3 bedrooms and 1 and 1/2 baths, situated on 1.46 acres. A spacious 28 x 16 living room addition provides ample space for everyday living and entertaining. The screened-in back porch offers a peaceful place to relax and enjoy the outdoors. Recent updates include a new furnace, appliances, flooring, kitchen lighting, and a remodeled full bathroom. A detached garage with power provides excellent storage for vehicles, equipment, and recreational toys. Conveniently located with easy access to snowmobile trails and just a short drive to the Salmon River, Lake Ontario, and Oneida Lake, offering year-round outdoor recreation. Ideal as a primary residence, seasonal retreat, or investment property.

18. 2026-01-16
    listed $115,000 Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Welcome to 18 Little Pond Road in Williamstown, NY. This home has 3 bedrooms and 1 and 1/2 baths, situated on 1.46 acres. A spacious 28 x 16 living room addition provides ample space for everyday living and entertaining. The screened-in back porch offers a peaceful place to relax and enjoy the outdoors. Recent updates include a new furnace, appliances, flooring, kitchen lighting, and a remodeled full bathroom. A detached garage with power provides excellent storage for vehicles, equipment, and recreational toys. Conveniently located with easy access to snowmobile trails and just a short drive to the Salmon River, Lake Ontario, and Oneida Lake, offering year-round outdoor recreation. Ideal as a primary residence, seasonal retreat, or investment property.

19. 2025-06-20
    status Pending
20. 2025-05-06
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2025-01-20
    price $115,000
22. 2024-12-21
    listed $120,000 Active
23. 2012-10-19
    soldstatus $37,000
24. 2011-12-21
    soldstatus $550
25. 2011-09-02
    listed $39,000
26. 2011-09-02
    listed $550
27. 2007-05-30
    soldstatus $60,000
28. 1995-11-27
    soldstatus $14,000
29. 1995-05-02
    soldstatus $10,855
30. 1993-07-26
    soldstatus $13,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,612 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$331/yr (+$28/mo · 25.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,281
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$235
• After-tax cash flow: $1,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602820
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,728
• Composite: 27.01/100
• National rank: #7063
• State rank: #573 of 590 in NY

Livability — Altmar

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1077
• US rank: #21658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,355

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.54%
• Current HPI: 328.0392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+727.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-02-10 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $115,000 CNYIS
• 2025-06-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-05-06 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed $115,000 CNYIS
• 2024-12-21 Listed $120,000 CNYIS
• 2012-10-19 Sold (MLS) $37,000 CNYIS
• 2011-12-21 Sold (MLS) $550 CNYIS
• 2011-09-02 Listed $550 CNYIS
• 2011-09-02 Listed $39,000 CNYIS
• 2007-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1995-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $10,855 Public Records
• 1993-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $13,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,281 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.