7001 Rogue River Hwy Spc 29 · Rogue River, OR 97527

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Land public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1969 $30/sqft · 11% above area Est $18k · 11% over ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic opportunity in Grants Pass Mobile Home Park. Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath manufactured home with updates already completed, including a new HVAC system for year-round comfort. The seller has continued making improvements, giving the next owner a great head start. Bring your finishing touches and make it your own. Ready for a new owner and priced to move.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1969
• Listed 95 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $926 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 65.9% vs local median 2.5% in Rogue River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, commute F.
• Rogue River SD 35 (other): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #129 of 183 in OR (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 212.74%
• DSCR: 10.47
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $18,000
• List price: $20,000
• Delta: 11.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.98×
• Total profit: $55,881
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.35×
• Total profit: $125,135
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97527

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $115/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $240

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $20,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $20,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $20,000 Pending 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $20,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   remarks 511-char remark
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $20,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $22,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $22,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $22,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $22,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $22,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $22,000 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Grants Pass Mobile Home Park. Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath manufactured home with updates already completed, including a new HVAC system for year-round comfort. The seller has continued making improvements, giving the next owner a great head start. Bring your finishing touches and make it your own. Ready for a new owner and priced to move.

17. 2026-04-18
    price $24,000 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Grants Pass Mobile Home Park. Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath manufactured home with updates already completed, including a new HVAC system for year-round comfort. The seller has continued making improvements, giving the next owner a great head start. Bring your finishing touches and make it your own. Ready for a new owner and priced to move.

18. 2026-04-07
    price $26,900 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Grants Pass Mobile Home Park. Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath manufactured home with updates already completed, including a new HVAC system for year-round comfort. The seller has continued making improvements, giving the next owner a great head start. Bring your finishing touches and make it your own. Ready for a new owner and priced to move.

19. 2026-03-09
    listed $28,000 Active 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Fantastic opportunity in Grants Pass Mobile Home Park. Cozy 2 bed, 1 bath manufactured home with updates already completed, including a new HVAC system for year-round comfort. The seller has continued making improvements, giving the next owner a great head start. Bring your finishing touches and make it your own. Ready for a new owner and priced to move.

20. 2026-03-05
    historical
21. 2026-02-18
    status Active
22. 2026-02-17
    historical
23. 2026-01-15
    price $25,900
24. 2026-01-05
    price $32,000
25. 2025-12-24
    listed $34,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $115 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $194 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 68.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥95°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$115
• − Insurance: −$897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $11,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,765
• After-tax cash flow: $8,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogue River SD 35
• NCES district ID: 4110680
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,632
• Composite: 34.12/100
• National rank: #10284
• State rank: #129 of 183 in OR

Livability — Rogue River

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #6542

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Josephine County · 73,366 people
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• Population (ZIP): 37,330
• Household income: $66,975
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.09%
• Current HPI: 318.0477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.05%
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-35.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $22,000 MLSCO
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $24,000 MLSCO
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $26,900 MLSCO
• 2026-03-09 Listed $28,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $25,900 MLSCO
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $32,000 MLSCO
• 2025-12-24 Listed $34,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $115 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.