156 Horsetail Ave · Middleburg, FL 32068

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Manufactured public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1974 2.19 ac lot Est $244k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all Investors! Bring all offers! Fixer Upper. Please read information! CASH only. No seller financing. Not insurable. Come check out the potential on this 3/2, 1464 sq ft. double wide on 2 acres. Home is being sold as-is. No repairs will be made. HVAC is less than 2 yrs old. Home needs subfloor replaced in 2nd guest bedroom please take caution when entering the home, federal pacific panel, 2 large sheds in great shape. Trailer is not financeable or insurable, 1974. Let your imagine run wild on this property. Interior has been recently painted and cleaned. No flood zone or wetlands. Please read documents.

Key facts

• Large living area
• 2.19 acres
• Upgraded walls

Tags

• 2.19 ACRES
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• UPGRADED WALLS
• LIGHT WOOD LAMINATE FLOORS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• NEWER APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 garage space); Detached carport (2 carport spaces)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (entry at level 1)
• Construction: Other roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Workshop on property; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bathroom with tub and separate shower
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.08%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,488
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Foxtail Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	11mo	$202,900	$145	72
196 Aster Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+2%)	12mo	$249,900	$167	54
4570 Mayflower St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-12%)	1mo	$215,000	$167	45
48 N Mimosa Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	21mo	$230,000	$171	45
58 Azalea Ave	0.57mi	3/3.0	1,620 (+11%)	12mo	$262,400	$162	42
84 N Mimosa Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	24mo	$150,000	$116	41
4542 Mayflower St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-15%)	22mo	$240,000	$192	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,291
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $46,725
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 611
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,855/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $630	-5% $573	+0% $517	+5% $460	+10% $403
Rent	-10% $336	-5% $426	+0% $517	+5% $607	+10% $697
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $567	base $517	+0.5pp $465	+1.0pp $412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4371 Johns Cemetery Rd Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1718	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	0.64mi
931 Voyager Trl Middleburg, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1618	$2,147	$1.33	3d	6	1.37mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $199,900 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,900 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,900 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,900 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,900 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,900 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,900 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $220,900
17. 2026-03-26
    price $229,900
18. 2026-03-26
    price $249,900
19. 2026-01-07
    listed $259,900 Active
20. 2024-05-01
    soldstatus $135,000
21. 2024-04-25
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed 623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (623 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Bring all offers! Fixer Upper. Please read information! CASH only. No seller financing. Not insurable. Come check out the potential on this 3/2, 1464 sq ft. double wide on 2 acres. Home is being sold as-is. No repairs will be made. HVAC is less than 2 yrs old. Home needs subfloor replaced in 2nd guest bedroom please take caution when entering the home, federal pacific panel, 2 large sheds in great shape. Trailer is not financeable or insurable, 1974. Let your imagine run wild on this property. Interior has been recently painted and cleaned. No flood zone or wetlands. Please read documents.

22. 2024-04-16
    status Pending 623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (623 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Bring all offers! Fixer Upper. Please read information! CASH only. No seller financing. Not insurable. Come check out the potential on this 3/2, 1464 sq ft. double wide on 2 acres. Home is being sold as-is. No repairs will be made. HVAC is less than 2 yrs old. Home needs subfloor replaced in 2nd guest bedroom please take caution when entering the home, federal pacific panel, 2 large sheds in great shape. Trailer is not financeable or insurable, 1974. Let your imagine run wild on this property. Interior has been recently painted and cleaned. No flood zone or wetlands. Please read documents.

23. 2024-04-05
    historical Active Under Contract 623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (623 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Bring all offers! Fixer Upper. Please read information! CASH only. No seller financing. Not insurable. Come check out the potential on this 3/2, 1464 sq ft. double wide on 2 acres. Home is being sold as-is. No repairs will be made. HVAC is less than 2 yrs old. Home needs subfloor replaced in 2nd guest bedroom please take caution when entering the home, federal pacific panel, 2 large sheds in great shape. Trailer is not financeable or insurable, 1974. Let your imagine run wild on this property. Interior has been recently painted and cleaned. No flood zone or wetlands. Please read documents.

24. 2024-03-25
    price $130,000 623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (623 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Bring all offers! Fixer Upper. Please read information! CASH only. No seller financing. Not insurable. Come check out the potential on this 3/2, 1464 sq ft. double wide on 2 acres. Home is being sold as-is. No repairs will be made. HVAC is less than 2 yrs old. Home needs subfloor replaced in 2nd guest bedroom please take caution when entering the home, federal pacific panel, 2 large sheds in great shape. Trailer is not financeable or insurable, 1974. Let your imagine run wild on this property. Interior has been recently painted and cleaned. No flood zone or wetlands. Please read documents.

25. 2024-02-23
    price $145,000 623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (623 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Bring all offers! Fixer Upper. Please read information! CASH only. No seller financing. Not insurable. Come check out the potential on this 3/2, 1464 sq ft. double wide on 2 acres. Home is being sold as-is. No repairs will be made. HVAC is less than 2 yrs old. Home needs subfloor replaced in 2nd guest bedroom please take caution when entering the home, federal pacific panel, 2 large sheds in great shape. Trailer is not financeable or insurable, 1974. Let your imagine run wild on this property. Interior has been recently painted and cleaned. No flood zone or wetlands. Please read documents.

26. 2024-02-21
    status Active 623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (623 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Bring all offers! Fixer Upper. Please read information! CASH only. No seller financing. Not insurable. Come check out the potential on this 3/2, 1464 sq ft. double wide on 2 acres. Home is being sold as-is. No repairs will be made. HVAC is less than 2 yrs old. Home needs subfloor replaced in 2nd guest bedroom please take caution when entering the home, federal pacific panel, 2 large sheds in great shape. Trailer is not financeable or insurable, 1974. Let your imagine run wild on this property. Interior has been recently painted and cleaned. No flood zone or wetlands. Please read documents.

27. 2024-02-16
    status Pending 623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (623 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Bring all offers! Fixer Upper. Please read information! CASH only. No seller financing. Not insurable. Come check out the potential on this 3/2, 1464 sq ft. double wide on 2 acres. Home is being sold as-is. No repairs will be made. HVAC is less than 2 yrs old. Home needs subfloor replaced in 2nd guest bedroom please take caution when entering the home, federal pacific panel, 2 large sheds in great shape. Trailer is not financeable or insurable, 1974. Let your imagine run wild on this property. Interior has been recently painted and cleaned. No flood zone or wetlands. Please read documents.

28. 2024-02-02
    listed $200,000 Active 623-char remark

    Show marketing remark (623 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Bring all offers! Fixer Upper. Please read information! CASH only. No seller financing. Not insurable. Come check out the potential on this 3/2, 1464 sq ft. double wide on 2 acres. Home is being sold as-is. No repairs will be made. HVAC is less than 2 yrs old. Home needs subfloor replaced in 2nd guest bedroom please take caution when entering the home, federal pacific panel, 2 large sheds in great shape. Trailer is not financeable or insurable, 1974. Let your imagine run wild on this property. Interior has been recently painted and cleaned. No flood zone or wetlands. Please read documents.

29. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,855
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $3,135
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$752
• After-tax cash flow: $5,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleburg, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1667.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $220,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $229,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $249,900 realMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $259,900 realMLS
• 2024-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-25 Sold (MLS) $135,000 realMLS
• 2024-04-16 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-04-05 Contingent — realMLS
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $130,000 realMLS
• 2024-02-23 Price Changed $145,000 realMLS
• 2024-02-21 Relisted — realMLS
• 2024-02-16 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-02-02 Listed $200,000 realMLS
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,855 · +418.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.