413 Winter Ridge Blvd #413 · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$144,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,073 sqft · Condo · 247 Days on market

Built 1995 $249/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is located at 413 Winter Ridge Blvd. Take a dip in the beautiful swimming pool at Winter Ridge, play Bingo and meet the neighbors or take your family fishing off the pier. Whatever you do, you'll love this 2BR/2BA condo freshly painted with new carpet and new appliances. Great lake view!

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Views of lake conine
• Heated swimming pool

Tags

• DIRECT ACCESS TO LAKE SMART
• OVERSIZED SCREENED LANAI
• VIEWS OF LAKE CONINE
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACES
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Monthly condo fee listed as $250; condo fees reported quarterly; Total annual association fees reported
• HOA & community: Winter Ridge Condominiums HOA; association approval required; Quarterly association fees (includes pool, building and grounds maintenance, recreational facilities); Community clubhouse and pool; Community mailbox; Shuffleboard court; Vehicle and fence restrictions; Pets allowed (max ~40 lbs); Buyer approval required for community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Single-story (one level); East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with completed condition
• Exterior features: Covered, screened rear porch; Sliding doors; Rain gutters; Landscaped lot; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (located on first floor)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open living/dining area; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-424/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (3.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Alfred Elementary School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 821 students, 49% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $999 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $144k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-26,866
• Equity at exit: $21,545

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-31,125
• Equity at exit: $12,494

Cash invested: $40,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,168/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$249
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,579

Max offer price $139,389

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $15	+0% $-35	+5% $-85	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-96	+0% $-35	+5% $25	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $1	base $-35	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,125
• Closing costs: $4,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Winter Ter #121 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	25d	1	0.04mi
242 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,350	$1.26	16d	1	0.10mi
245 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	5d	1	0.13mi
350 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,425	$1.33	25d	1	0.13mi
324 Avenue Y NE Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,550	$1.71	25d	1	0.74mi
140 W Avenue Northwest Apt 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	25d	1	1.01mi
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	25d	1	1.06mi
1830 2nd St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	1.29mi
1730 Broxey Ct NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	25d	1	1.31mi
1708 2nd St NW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	25d	1	1.44mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	25d	1	1.48mi
395 Quentin Ave NW Unit 397 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	912	$1,450	$1.59	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $249 · $2,988/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $144,500 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,500 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,500 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,500 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,500 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,500 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,500 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,500 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,500 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,500 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $144,500 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,500 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,500 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,500 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $144,500
16. 2026-01-27
    price $149,500
17. 2025-10-17
    listed $158,900 Active
18. 2025-10-15
    historical $1,400
19. 2025-07-09
    listed $1,400
20. 2024-07-03
    historical $1,350
21. 2024-05-01
    listed $1,350
22. 2024-04-17
    historical $1,350
23. 2024-02-23
    listed $1,350
24. 2012-01-13
    soldstatus $37,000 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    This home is located at 413 Winter Ridge Blvd. Take a dip in the beautiful swimming pool at Winter Ridge, play Bingo and meet the neighbors or take your family fishing off the pier. Whatever you do, you'll love this 2BR/2BA condo freshly painted with new carpet and new appliances. Great lake view!

25. 2011-11-22
    listed $43,500 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    This home is located at 413 Winter Ridge Blvd. Take a dip in the beautiful swimming pool at Winter Ridge, play Bingo and meet the neighbors or take your family fishing off the pier. Whatever you do, you'll love this 2BR/2BA condo freshly painted with new carpet and new appliances. Great lake view!

26. 2011-10-17
    historical
27. 2011-09-15
    listed $43,500
28. 2011-08-16
    historical
29. 2011-08-06
    listed $58,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,094
• − Property taxes: −$2,168
• − Insurance: −$722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − HOA: −$2,988
• − Depreciation: −$4,204
• Taxable loss: −$2,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$650
• After-tax cash flow: $226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+147.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $144,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $149,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Listed $158,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Rental Removed $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Rental Removed $1,350 STELLARMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listed for Rent $1,350 STELLARMLS
• 2024-04-17 Rental Removed $1,350 STELLARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Listed for Rent $1,350 STELLARMLS
• 2012-01-13 Sold (MLS) $37,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-22 Listed $43,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-15 Listed $43,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-06 Listed $58,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid