217 Juniper Rd · Ruidoso, NM 88346

$215,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,718 sqft · Other public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1970 0.25 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located 5-15 min drive from main shopping, restaurants, main attractions.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 156 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#40 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Ruidoso Municipal Schools (town): math 16% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 29 in NM (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.11%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $93,821
• Equity at exit: $117,665

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $243,669
• Equity at exit: $199,705

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88346

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $673/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,612

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 4th St Ruidoso, NM	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,200	$2.04	43d	1	1.01mi
107 Niblic Ct Ruidoso, NM	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,200	$1.61	43d	1	1.11mi
570 2nd St Ruidoso, NM	3.0	3.0	1825	$3,200	$1.75	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $215,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-03-10
    price $195,000 73-char remark

    Show marketing remark (73 chars)

    Located 5-15 min drive from main shopping, restaurants, main attractions.

18. 2026-03-02
    price $215,000 73-char remark

    Show marketing remark (73 chars)

    Located 5-15 min drive from main shopping, restaurants, main attractions.

19. 2026-01-14
    listed $250,000 Active 73-char remark

    Show marketing remark (73 chars)

    Located 5-15 min drive from main shopping, restaurants, main attractions.

20. 2024-02-29
    historical
21. 2024-01-29
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $673 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,047/yr (+$87/mo · 155.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$673
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,468
• − Management: −$2,468
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $5,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,409
• After-tax cash flow: $7,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ruidoso Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502310
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $44,094
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5925
• State rank: #14 of 29 in NM

Livability — Ruidoso

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #11996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruidoso, NM
• City population: 7,835
• Population (ZIP): 3,087

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,903 people
• By 2030: 15,556 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 13,064 · -22.7%
• By 2050: 10,991 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 7,619 · -54.9%
• By 2100: 5,966 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 29% Native American 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 29.8% · R 68.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+36.4 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+32.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.68%
• Current HPI: 148.7966
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $195,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $215,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $250,000 GEPARMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2024-01-29 Listed $215,000 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $673 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.