16 N Star Vale -- Unit 122a · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$82,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $201/sqft · 28% above area Est $64k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute park model in the W Ranch Resort 55+ community on a quite cul-d-sac. Gorgeous mountain views from the covered dec. Large storage shed. Full size washer and dryer. All electric. One bedroom and one bathroom. Private back yard area. Pergola in front yard area. Lot rent of $650/mo includes water, sewer, trash. Access to the parks gym, pickle ball court, dog park, and club house.

Key facts

• Private back yard
• Pergola
• Covered dec

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• COVERED DEC
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE BACK YARD
• PERGOLA
• ACCESS TO GYM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.8% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Julia Randall Elementary School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Rim Country Middle School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 493 students, 53% FRL); Payson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 790 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 708 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,080 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.05%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,304
• List price: $82,000
• Delta: 27.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Star Vale Dr Unit 154A	0.00mi	1/1.0	396 (-3%)	5mo	$95,000	$240	91
16 N Star Vale Rd Unit 153B	0.06mi	1/1.0	399 (-2%)	9mo	$93,000	$233	86
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 131B	0.08mi	1/1.0	408 (0%)	16mo	$68,000	$167	83
16 N Star Vale Dr Spc 126A	0.00mi	1/1.0	396 (-3%)	15mo	$78,000	$197	82
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 101A	0.08mi	1/1.0	396 (-3%)	15mo	$92,000	$232	79
3696 Az-260 Unit A6	0.16mi	1/1.0	385 (-6%)	7mo	$80,000	$208	77
16 N Star Vale Dr Unit 152B	0.06mi	2/1.0 (+1)	398 (-2%)	13mo	$95,000	$239	77
3680 E Hwy 260 Unit B2	0.18mi	1/1.0	396 (-3%)	12mo	$69,000	$174	77
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 123B	0.08mi	1/1.0	396 (-3%)	23mo	$79,000	$199	72
3933 E AZ Highway 260 #114	0.43mi	1/1.0	398 (-2%)	6mo	$50,000	$126	70
16 N Star Vale Dr Unit 125B	0.22mi	1/1.0	399 (-2%)	19mo	$85,000	$213	70
3680 Az-260 Unit C24	0.18mi	1/1.0	385 (-6%)	18mo	$77,000	$200	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $11,168
• Equity at exit: $12,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $41,266
• Equity at exit: $7,090

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 708
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $717

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $412	+0% $384	+5% $355	+10% $327
Rent	-10% $289	-5% $336	+0% $384	+5% $431	+10% $479
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $405	base $384	+0.5pp $362	+1.0pp $341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $82,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $82,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $82,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $82,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $82,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $82,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,000 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-03-30
    listed $82,000 Active 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Super cute park model in the W Ranch Resort 55+ community on a quite cul-d-sac. Gorgeous mountain views from the covered dec. Large storage shed. Full size washer and dryer. All electric. One bedroom and one bathroom. Private back yard area. Pergola in front yard area. Lot rent of $650/mo includes water, sewer, trash. Access to the parks gym, pickle ball court, dog park, and club house.

19. 2026-03-27
    listed $82,000 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Super cute park model in the W Ranch Resort 55+ community on a quite cul-d-sac. Gorgeous mountain views from the covered dec. Large storage shed. Full size washer and dryer. All electric. One bedroom and one bathroom. Private back yard area. Pergola in front yard area. Lot rent of $650/mo includes water, sewer, trash. Access to the parks gym, pickle ball court, dog park, and club house. Schedule your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $3,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$842
• After-tax cash flow: $3,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This park model in a 55+ community is in good condition with a maintained exterior and interior. It offers a covered deck and pergola for outdoor living, and is located on a quiet cul-de-sac with mountain views.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Fresh outdoor furniture can improve the appeal and functionality of the covered deck and pergola.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace outdoor furniture — Fresh outdoor furniture can improve the appeal and functionality of the covered deck and pergola. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $82,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $82,000 CAAR