3161 Maplehurst Ave · Crandall, TX 75114

$226,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · Land · 96 Days on market

Built 2025 9,418 sqft lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $224k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LENNAR - Cartwright Ranch - Beckman Floorplan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. THIS IS COMPLETE JANUARY 2025!

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Private corner
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM
• PRIVATE CORNER
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.3% in Crandall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nola Kathryn Wilson El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 596 students, 59% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,569 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,072
• List price: $226,999
• Delta: 1.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,987
• Equity at exit: $33,846

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $8,405
• Equity at exit: $19,627

Cash invested: $63,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 802
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,301/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,817

Max offer price $226,999

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $360	+0% $296	+5% $232	+10% $167
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $209	+0% $296	+5% $382	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $354	base $296	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,750
• Closing costs: $6,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1322 Olivewood Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,100	$1.44	9d	1	0.18mi
1322 Olivewood Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,100	$1.44	1d	1	0.18mi
505 S 5th St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,900	$1.40	45d	1	1.18mi
106 N 4th St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	45d	1	1.34mi
106 W Church St Crandall, TX	2.0	1.0	984	$1,500	$1.52	22d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $226,999 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   LENNAR - Cartwright Ranch - Beckman Floorplan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. THIS IS COMPLETE JANUARY 2025!

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   LENNAR - Cartwright Ranch - Beckman Floorplan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. THIS IS COMPLETE JANUARY 2025!

3. 2026-02-13
   price $233,999 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   LENNAR - Cartwright Ranch - Beckman Floorplan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. THIS IS COMPLETE JANUARY 2025!

4. 2026-02-07
   listed $236,999 Active 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   LENNAR - Cartwright Ranch - Beckman Floorplan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. THIS IS COMPLETE JANUARY 2025!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,301 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,154 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,853/yr (+$238/mo · 219.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,715
• − Property taxes: −$1,301
• − Insurance: −$1,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,604
• Taxable loss: −$169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $3,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crandall, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $226,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $233,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $236,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,301 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.