5807 Black Pine Cir · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$263,040

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2024 1,307 sqft lot $154/sqft · at area comps Est $267k · at est. $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER!! Gorgeous Modern Home featuring a long driveway and two-car garage, built in 2024. Inside, you’ll find an open, light-filled layout with beautiful light oak luxury vinyl plank flooring, quartz countertops, and stylish decorative lighting throughout. The kitchen impresses with stainless steel appliances, a pot filler above the stove, an upgraded sink faucet, Samsun Bespoke 4-Door French Door refrigerator that stays with the home and modern finishes. The primary suite offers a spa-like ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower featuring a seating area and dual vanities, while an additional bedroom is conveniently located downstairs with two more upstairs. The oversized laundry room includes built-in shelving and coat hooks for added functionality. Enjoy resort-style community amenities including parks, pools, and basketball courts, and with its prime location just minutes from Lake Granbury, shopping, and dining, this home blends comfort, style, and convenience—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Long driveway
• Two-car garage

Tags

• LONG DRIVEWAY
• TWO-CAR GARAGE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• POT FILLER ABOVE STOVE
• UPGRADED SINK FAUCET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,844 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,821
• List price: $263,040
• Delta: -1.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5610 San Jacinto Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,709 (-0%)	2mo	$289,999	$170	83
5622 Mesa Loop	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,795 (+5%)	0mo	$285,000	$159	71
5845 Black Pine Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (-7%)	2mo	$280,000	$176	69
2518 Houston Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,729 (+1%)	2mo	$287,000	$166	69
5104 Waterbury Ct	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,794 (+5%)	1mo	$299,500	$167	65
6106 Moose Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (-2%)	1mo	$350,000	$209	64
5506 Firewood Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-2%)	0mo	$249,900	$149	63
5812 Belaire Cir	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,871 (+9%)	2mo	$369,900	$198	58
2404 Duro Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (+1%)	2mo	$315,000	$182	57
5519 Belaire Cir	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,953 (+14%)	1mo	$379,000	$194	55
5103 San Marcos Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,542 (-10%)	2mo	$288,500	$187	49
4910 Terlingua Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+5%)	2mo	$349,900	$194	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-52,949
• Equity at exit: $39,220

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-70,117
• Equity at exit: $22,743

Cash invested: $73,651 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,445/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,284

Max offer price $245,567

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $-24	+0% $-99	+5% $-173	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-269	-5% $-184	+0% $-99	+5% $-14	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-32	base $-99	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,760
• Closing costs: $7,891
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5619 Cold Water Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,090	$1.16	45d	1	0.11mi
5621 San Jacinto Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,100	$1.42	9d	1	0.28mi
5718 Barkridge Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,070	$1.43	0d	1	0.29mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	4d	1	0.40mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	0d	1	0.40mi
5105 Waterbury Ct Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,300	$1.33	26d	1	0.47mi
2500 Houston Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1770	$2,400	$1.36	6d	1	0.49mi
5522 Firewood Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,400	$1.67	45d	1	0.51mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	26d	1	0.92mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	23d	1	0.94mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	20d	1	0.94mi
2213 Beverly Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,300	$1.24	26d	1	1.01mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	5d	1	1.13mi
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	9d	1	1.14mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	45d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $263,040 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,040 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,040 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,040 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,040 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $263,040 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $263,040 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $263,040 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $263,040 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $263,040 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $263,040 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $263,040 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $263,040 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $263,040 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $263,040 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!! Gorgeous Modern Home featuring a long driveway and two-car garage, built in 2024. Inside, you’ll find an open, light-filled layout with beautiful light oak luxury vinyl plank flooring, quartz countertops, and stylish decorative lighting throughout. The kitchen impresses with stainless steel appliances, a pot filler above the stove, an upgraded sink faucet, Samsun Bespoke 4-Door French Door refrigerator that stays with the home and modern finishes. The primary suite offers a spa-like ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower featuring a seating area and dual vanities, while an additional bedroom is conveniently located downstairs with two more upstairs. The oversized laundry room includes built-in shelving and coat hooks for added functionality. Enjoy resort-style community amenities including parks, pools, and basketball courts, and with its prime location just minutes from Lake Granbury, shopping, and dining, this home blends comfort, style, and convenience—schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-04-10
    price $268,520 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!! Gorgeous Modern Home featuring a long driveway and two-car garage, built in 2024. Inside, you’ll find an open, light-filled layout with beautiful light oak luxury vinyl plank flooring, quartz countertops, and stylish decorative lighting throughout. The kitchen impresses with stainless steel appliances, a pot filler above the stove, an upgraded sink faucet, Samsun Bespoke 4-Door French Door refrigerator that stays with the home and modern finishes. The primary suite offers a spa-like ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower featuring a seating area and dual vanities, while an additional bedroom is conveniently located downstairs with two more upstairs. The oversized laundry room includes built-in shelving and coat hooks for added functionality. Enjoy resort-style community amenities including parks, pools, and basketball courts, and with its prime location just minutes from Lake Granbury, shopping, and dining, this home blends comfort, style, and convenience—schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-03-10
    listed $274,000 Active 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!! Gorgeous Modern Home featuring a long driveway and two-car garage, built in 2024. Inside, you’ll find an open, light-filled layout with beautiful light oak luxury vinyl plank flooring, quartz countertops, and stylish decorative lighting throughout. The kitchen impresses with stainless steel appliances, a pot filler above the stove, an upgraded sink faucet, Samsun Bespoke 4-Door French Door refrigerator that stays with the home and modern finishes. The primary suite offers a spa-like ensuite bathroom with a walk-in shower featuring a seating area and dual vanities, while an additional bedroom is conveniently located downstairs with two more upstairs. The oversized laundry room includes built-in shelving and coat hooks for added functionality. Enjoy resort-style community amenities including parks, pools, and basketball courts, and with its prime location just minutes from Lake Granbury, shopping, and dining, this home blends comfort, style, and convenience—schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-09
    historical
19. 2025-10-01
    price $280,000
20. 2025-09-16
    listed $300,000 Active
21. 2025-05-29
    soldstatus Closed
22. 2025-05-06
    status Pending
23. 2025-04-28
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2025-04-22
    price $270,000
25. 2025-03-18
    price $280,000
26. 2025-03-07
    listed $289,990 Active
27. 2025-03-05
    historical
28. 2025-02-12
    price $289,990
29. 2025-01-27
    price $299,990
30. 2024-12-06
    price $315,000
31. 2024-10-22
    listed $325,000 Active
32. 2024-02-14
    soldstatus
33. 2022-09-22
    soldstatus
34. 2022-05-18
    soldstatus
35. 1999-06-11
    soldstatus
36. 1999-05-18
    soldstatus
37. 1982-04-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,445 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,814 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,369/yr (+$114/mo · 39.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,734
• − Property taxes: −$3,445
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$7,652
• Taxable loss: −$5,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,374
• After-tax cash flow: $187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Creek, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $263,040 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $268,520 NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $274,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-04-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $289,990 NTREIS
• 2025-03-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $289,990 NTREIS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $299,990 NTREIS
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-22 Listed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+34.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,445 · +1695.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.