498 E Avenue R · Belton, TX 76513

$125,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2022 Fair condition 5,837 sqft lot Est $176k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Reposted for MLS data Sheet

Key facts

• 5,837 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($725/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.6% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#462 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miller Heights El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 317 students, 82% FRL); Lake Belton Middle (math 47% / reading 52%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 826 students, 30% FRL); Belton H S (math 39% / reading 46%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 1,941 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 750 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,808
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
603 Holland Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0	960 (-10%)	1mo	$170,000	$177	69
1610 Oleta St	0.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	999 (-7%)	8mo	$151,400	$152	64
1129 Lindsey Cir	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,065 (-1%)	5mo	$175,000	$164	63
1009 E Avenue O	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,004 (-6%)	3mo	$165,000	$164	59
120 W Avenue J	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (+4%)	4mo	$125,000	$113	56
414 E Avenue P	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,215 (+13%)	14mo	$160,000	$132	52
1160 Lindsey Cir	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	988 (-8%)	6mo	$160,000	$162	52
303 W Avenue I Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,114 (+4%)	4mo	$205,000	$184	51
1415 Shady Ln	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	984 (-8%)	2mo	$157,000	$160	49
1104 Renee Spur	0.54mi	2/1.0	962 (-10%)	15mo	$169,900	$177	43
1402 Sharon Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,211 (+13%)	4mo	$270,000	$223	38
1407 Magnolia St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-10%)	8mo	$163,134	$170	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-18,612
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-19,987
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76513

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 750
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,824/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $96	+0% $60	+5% $25	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $6	+0% $60	+5% $115	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $92	base $60	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1948 Royal Loop Belton, TX	3.0	2.5	1486	$1,495	$1.01	45d	1	0.44mi
1614 Kelly Dr Belton, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	45d	1	0.44mi
1608 Kelly Dr Belton, TX	2.0	2.0	825	$950	$1.15	15d	1	0.45mi
901 Carla Kay Dr Unit B Belton, TX	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,360	$0.93	45d	1	0.52mi
1614 Shady Ln Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,500	$1.01	45d	1	0.61mi
1400 Magnolia St Belton, TX	3.0	1.5	1330	$1,500	$1.13	25d	1	0.61mi
1851 Connell St Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,550	$1.15	45d	1	0.62mi
332 Arnold Dr Unit B Belton, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,425	$1.34	45d	1	0.66mi
1903 Connell St Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,342	$1.04	15d	10	0.68mi
1572 Brady Way Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,295	$1.08	22d	1	0.69mi
725 Laila Ln Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,345	$1.11	15d	1	0.70mi
1013 Kerr Ct Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,290	$1.00	25d	1	0.71mi
1539 Chance Ct Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,345	$1.11	45d	1	0.71mi
912 Mason Dr Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,395	$1.08	45d	1	0.72mi
912 Mason Dr Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,395	$1.08	15d	1	0.72mi
1004 Kerr Ct Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,395	$1.08	45d	1	0.72mi
1012 Kerr Ct Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,395	$1.08	45d	1	0.73mi
1032 Mason Dr Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,395	$1.08	25d	1	0.75mi
829 Laila Ln Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,345	$1.01	25d	1	0.76mi
1032 Edwards Dr Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,395	$1.08	25d	1	0.76mi
1044 Edwards Dr Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,290	$1.00	25d	1	0.81mi
945 Laila Ln Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,345	$1.01	45d	1	0.83mi
1538 Kal Ct Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,345	$1.01	45d	1	0.84mi
1560 Kal Ct Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,345	$1.01	22d	1	0.84mi
1013 Laila Ln Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,240	$0.93	25d	1	0.85mi
1003 Laurel Dr Belton, TX	1.0	1.0	904	$1,295	$1.43	25d	1	0.87mi
1011 Laurel Dr Belton, TX	1.0	1.0	904	$1,295	$1.43	45d	1	0.88mi
1221 Jasmine Dr Belton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,450	$1.37	15d	4	0.94mi
1044 Hibiscus Dr Belton, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,450	$1.20	45d	1	0.95mi
1057 Hibiscus Dr Belton, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,450	$1.20	45d	1	0.97mi
1124 W Avenue O Belton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,375	$1.61	15d	14	0.98mi
1075 Hibiscus Dr Belton, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,450	$1.20	45d	1	1.00mi
298 West Avenue A Unit A Belton, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$536	$0.77	45d	1	1.15mi
302 Kegley St Belton, TX	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	25d	1	1.24mi
300 W 1st Ave Apt 222 Belton, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	45d	1	1.26mi
415 E 4th Ave Belton, TX	2.0	1.0	1148	$1,200	$1.05	45d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $125,000
3. 2025-10-14
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-14
   historical
5. 2025-10-02
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2025-09-22
   price $119,900
7. 2025-07-11
   price $145,000
8. 2025-06-06
   listed $150,000 Active
9. 2025-04-03
   historical
10. 2025-01-23
    price $145,000
11. 2025-01-07
    price $150,000
12. 2024-12-23
    status Active
13. 2024-12-23
    price $155,000
14. 2024-11-30
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2024-11-29
    status Active
16. 2024-11-28
    historical
17. 2024-10-17
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2024-08-19
    status Active
19. 2024-08-19
    price $115,000
20. 2024-08-08
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2024-07-26
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2024-05-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,824 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,824 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,824
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$293
• After-tax cash flow: $1,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including painting and roof replacement, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Appears aged and possibly damaged

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior and roof — Enhances curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both replace exterior siding — Improves aesthetics and durability
• Both repair roof — Ensures structural integrity and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Appears aged and possibly damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior and roof — Enhances curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both replace exterior siding — Improves aesthetics and durability ↑
• Both repair roof — Ensures structural integrity and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Belton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #9300

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belton, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 45,928
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,928
• Household income: $80,661
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 183.6715
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $125,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-14 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-02 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $119,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $145,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $150,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $145,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $150,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-12-23 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2024-12-23 Price Changed $155,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-30 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2024-11-29 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2024-11-28 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-10-17 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2024-08-19 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $115,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-08 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2024-07-26 Listed $125,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,824 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.