14 Kingfisher Way · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$36,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 1978 $45/sqft · 48% below area Est $69k · 48% under $905/mo HOA · 57% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the simple things in life as you enter this open-concept home in Whting's 55+ Pine Ridge at Crestwood community. Recently updated kitchen cabinets and updated flooring that runs from the kitchen into the living room and hall offers convenience, functionality, and style. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher, as well as bathroom floors and 275 gallon oil tank with cage. Enjoy serenity as you sit in the screened/roofed entry deck. Asphalt driveway offers convenient parking. Located next to the community clubhouse, this home is ready for it's next owner-all you need to do is unpack and enjoy!

Key facts

• Open-concept home
• Newer dishwasher
• Newer roof

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEWER HVAC
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease years remaining: 0
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee includes lawn maintenance, management, snow removal, trash, and taxes; Community amenities include outdoor pool, clubhouse, fitness center, and community center; Monthly HOA/land lease fee: $905.57

Exterior

• Parking: Two off-street spaces; Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable TV available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Located in a 55+ senior community; Land lease ownership
• Construction: Rubber roof; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Community pool; Other above-grade structures; Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating (oil fuel); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric dryer; Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.9% in Pine Ridge at Crestwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $249 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 57% of rent.

Recommended offer $34,920 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.12%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,772
• List price: $36,000
• Delta: -47.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $1,766
• Equity at exit: $5,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $12,934
• Equity at exit: $3,113

Cash invested: $10,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$189
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$45 /mo · $540/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$905
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $36,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,000
• Closing costs: $1,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	3d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $905 · $10,860/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $36,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $36,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $36,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $36,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $36,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $36,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 45 DOM

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   Enjoy the simple things in life as you enter this open-concept home in Whting's 55+ Pine Ridge at Crestwood community. Recently updated kitchen cabinets and updated flooring that runs from the kitchen into the living room and hall offers convenience, functionality, and style. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher, as well as bathroom floors and 275 gallon oil tank with cage. Enjoy serenity as you sit in the screened/roofed entry deck. Asphalt driveway offers convenient parking. Located next to the community clubhouse, this home is ready for it's next owner-all you need to do is unpack and enjoy!

8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $44,900 596-char remark
15. 2026-05-03
    price $44,900 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Enjoy the simple things in life as you enter this open-concept home in Whting's 55+ Pine Ridge at Crestwood community. Recently updated kitchen cabinets and updated flooring that runs from the kitchen into the living room and hall offers convenience, functionality, and style. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher, as well as bathroom floors and 275 gallon oil tank with cage. Enjoy serenity as you sit in the screened/roofed entry deck. Asphalt driveway offers convenient parking. Located next to the community clubhouse, this home is ready for it's next owner-all you need to do is unpack and enjoy!

16. 2026-04-24
    listed $49,000 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Enjoy the simple things in life as you enter this open-concept home in Whting's 55+ Pine Ridge at Crestwood community. Recently updated kitchen cabinets and updated flooring that runs from the kitchen into the living room and hall offers convenience, functionality, and style. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher, as well as bathroom floors and 275 gallon oil tank with cage. Enjoy serenity as you sit in the screened/roofed entry deck. Asphalt driveway offers convenient parking. Located next to the community clubhouse, this home is ready for it's next owner-all you need to do is unpack and enjoy!

17. 2026-04-24
    listed $49,000 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Enjoy the simple things in life as you enter this open-concept home in Whting's 55+ Pine Ridge at Crestwood community. Recently updated kitchen cabinets and updated flooring that runs from the kitchen into the living room and hall offers convenience, functionality, and style. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher, as well as bathroom floors and 275 gallon oil tank with cage. Enjoy serenity as you sit in the screened/roofed entry deck. Asphalt driveway offers convenient parking. Located next to the community clubhouse, this home is ready for it's next owner-all you need to do is unpack and enjoy!

18. 2024-01-16
    soldstatus $36,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Charm meets convenience in this delightful 55+ community in Pine Ridge at Crestwood. Step into a world of warmth as you enter the open-concept living space, perfect for creating memories with loved ones. You will find this home has two spacious bedroom and walk in closet. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher. New bedroom and kitchen floors and new 275 gallon oil tank cage. Seller has c/o ready. Available for a quick closing. Inspection can be conducted for buyers knowledge only.

19. 2024-01-16
    soldstatus $36,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Charm meets convenience in this delightful 55+ community in Pine Ridge at Crestwood. Step into a world of warmth as you enter the open-concept living space, perfect for creating memories with loved ones. You will find this home has two spacious bedroom and walk in closet. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher. New bedroom and kitchen floors and new 275 gallon oil tank cage. Seller has c/o ready. Available for a quick closing. Inspection can be conducted for buyers knowledge only.

20. 2023-12-22
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Charm meets convenience in this delightful 55+ community in Pine Ridge at Crestwood. Step into a world of warmth as you enter the open-concept living space, perfect for creating memories with loved ones. You will find this home has two spacious bedroom and walk in closet. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher. New bedroom and kitchen floors and new 275 gallon oil tank cage. Seller has c/o ready. Available for a quick closing. Inspection can be conducted for buyers knowledge only.

21. 2023-12-22
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Charm meets convenience in this delightful 55+ community in Pine Ridge at Crestwood. Step into a world of warmth as you enter the open-concept living space, perfect for creating memories with loved ones. You will find this home has two spacious bedroom and walk in closet. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher. New bedroom and kitchen floors and new 275 gallon oil tank cage. Seller has c/o ready. Available for a quick closing. Inspection can be conducted for buyers knowledge only.

22. 2023-12-18
    listed $40,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Charm meets convenience in this delightful 55+ community in Pine Ridge at Crestwood. Step into a world of warmth as you enter the open-concept living space, perfect for creating memories with loved ones. You will find this home has two spacious bedroom and walk in closet. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher. New bedroom and kitchen floors and new 275 gallon oil tank cage. Seller has c/o ready. Available for a quick closing. Inspection can be conducted for buyers knowledge only.

23. 2023-12-18
    listed $40,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Charm meets convenience in this delightful 55+ community in Pine Ridge at Crestwood. Step into a world of warmth as you enter the open-concept living space, perfect for creating memories with loved ones. You will find this home has two spacious bedroom and walk in closet. Newer HVAC, roof and dishwasher. New bedroom and kitchen floors and new 275 gallon oil tank cage. Seller has c/o ready. Available for a quick closing. Inspection can be conducted for buyers knowledge only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,017
• − Property taxes: −$540
• − Insurance: −$180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − HOA: −$10,860
• − Depreciation: −$1,047
• Taxable income: $1,484
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$356
• After-tax cash flow: $966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $36,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $36,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $39,900 MOMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $44,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $49,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-01-16 Sold (MLS) $36,000 MOMLS
• 2024-01-16 Sold (MLS) $36,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-22 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-12-18 Listed $40,000 MOMLS
• 2023-12-18 Listed $40,000 BRIGHT MLS