Marathon - Shane Plan · Princeton, TX 75407

$99,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 209 Days on market

Good condition $865/mo HOA · 41% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Shane Duplex by Marathon Homes is a smart, modern setup that's perfect for families, guests, or rental income. Each side gives you open living space, a bright kitchen, and cozy bedrooms that make everyday life easy and comfortable. Built with quality and designed for flexibility, The Shane is a great mix of style and practicality.

Key facts

• Listed 208 days

🏗️ New construction. The $99,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $259,239.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-973 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,995 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.08%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,239
• List price: $99,995
• Delta: -61.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9083 County Road 864	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	11mo	$265,000	$197	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-109,644
• Equity at exit: $38,653

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.72×
• Total profit: $-197,101
• Equity at exit: $22,414

Cash invested: $72,587 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,359
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,889/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$865
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-973

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,363

Max offer price $118,484

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,810
• Closing costs: $7,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 Yellow Rose Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$2,000	$1.55	43d	1	0.33mi
3918 Applewood Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,875	$1.45	22d	1	0.39mi
5105 Greywing Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	17d	1	1.19mi
108 Wyndemere Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,100	$1.46	43d	1	1.34mi
5213 Longshadow Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,035	$1.62	5d	1	1.42mi
510 Olmstead Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,395	$1.90	5d	1	1.45mi
718 Trestle Dr Princeton, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,750	$1.73	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $865 · $10,380/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,995 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,995 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,995 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,995 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,995 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,995 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,995 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,995 Active 200 DOM
9. 2025-11-13
   listed $99,995 Active 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   The Shane Duplex by Marathon Homes is a smart, modern setup that's perfect for families, guests, or rental income. Each side gives you open living space, a bright kitchen, and cozy bedrooms that make everyday life easy and comfortable. Built with quality and designed for flexibility, The Shane is a great mix of style and practicality.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,521
• − Property taxes: −$3,889
• − Insurance: −$1,296
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − HOA: −$10,380
• − Depreciation: −$7,542
• Taxable loss: −$16,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,874
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with modern options can boost both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with modern options can boost both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Listed $99,995 Zillow