21571 Bluebonnet Bay Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$399,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This lot is a subdivision lot located within Magnolia Woods, which will have amazing amenities including hiking trails, a splash pad, children's park, dog park and amenity center for family activities. The beautiful two-story Woods floor plan features four sizable bedrooms each with their own walk-in closet! Downstairs you will find a large entertainment area perfect for hosting and an incredible master retreat with bay windows. The second level features three spacious bedrooms, each with their own walk-in closet giving you all the storage space you need.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Amenity center
• Children's park

Tags

• HIKING TRAILS
• SPLASH PAD
• CHILDREN'S PARK
• DOG PARK
• AMENITY CENTER
• LARGE ENTERTAINMENT AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $399,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,408.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-854 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,042 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.77%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,408
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21536 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,174 (0%)	6mo	$367,900	$169	90
21523 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,174 (0%)	8mo	$381,900	$176	89
5621 Marigold Mile Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,388 (+10%)	2mo	$568,900	$238	71
5632 Marigold Mile Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,348 (+8%)	1mo	$519,900	$221	70
21694 Lotus Elm St	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,881 (-14%)	2mo	$343,900	$183	67
5607 Marigold Mile Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,348 (+8%)	9mo	$499,900	$213	64
21554 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,847 (-15%)	2mo	$359,900	$195	62
21531 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,847 (-15%)	10mo	$354,900	$192	55
21694 Magnolia Hills Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,317 (+7%)	9mo	$430,000	$186	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $166,092
• Equity at exit: $376,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $519,546
• Equity at exit: $810,932

Cash invested: $116,874 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,189
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,261/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-854

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,702

Max offer price $293,764

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-566	-5% $-710	+0% $-854	+5% $-999	+10% $-1,143
Rent	-10% $-1,061	-5% $-958	+0% $-854	+5% $-751	+10% $-647
Rate	-1.0pp $-644	-0.5pp $-748	base $-854	+0.5pp $-963	+1.0pp $-1,073

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,352
• Closing costs: $12,522
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21619 Bluebonnet Bay Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1911	$2,625	$1.37	0d	1	0.10mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $399,900
3. 2026-03-13
   listed $395,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,381
• − Property taxes: −$6,261
• − Insurance: −$2,087
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,516
• − Management: −$2,516
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$12,143
• Taxable loss: −$17,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,305
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $395,900 HARMLS