17145 Pinewood Branch Dr · Patton Village, TX 77357

$289,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,139 sqft · Land · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 6,726 sqft lot $136/sqft · at area comps Est $282k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 17145 Pinewood Branch Drive, a beautiful new construction home located in New Caney, TX. This two-story residence features 2,139 square feet of living space designed with a spacious layout that separates the active social spaces on the first floor from the quiet sleeping quarters on the second level. Key Features: • 4 expansive bedrooms, including a primary suite positioned on the first floor for easy access • 2 full bathrooms and 1 convenient half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 2,139 square feet of interior space intelligently distributed across two floors • Main-floor gathering hub that joins the kitchen and family room for an open, connected feel • New construction highlighting professional craftsmanship and energy-efficient building standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming New Caney community known for its friendly residential atmosphere • Close proximity to local parks and green spaces for staying active and enjoying the outdoors • A well-located spot that balances a quiet retreat with easy access to nature and daily essentials The interior is built for a natural flow, with a broad open area on the main floor that serves as the center for daily life and hosting. While the lower level is dedicated to social interaction and includes the primary bedroom and a half bath for guests, the upper story provides a dedicated floor for the additional bedrooms. T. .. MLS# 61941510

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Private owners suite
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE OWNERS SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• WELL-APPOINTED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.2% in Patton Village — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $238,487 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,122
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: 2.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-47,169
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-58,469
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $289,990

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21811 Hickory Springs Ct New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,700	$1.01	24d	1	0.77mi
21928 Juniper Crossing Dr New Caney, TX	5.0	3.0	2816	$2,300	$0.82	21d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $289,990 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,990 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,990 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $294,990 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $299,990 1492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1492 chars)

    Welcome to 17145 Pinewood Branch Drive, a beautiful new construction home located in New Caney, TX. This two-story residence features 2,139 square feet of living space designed with a spacious layout that separates the active social spaces on the first floor from the quiet sleeping quarters on the second level. Key Features: • 4 expansive bedrooms, including a primary suite positioned on the first floor for easy access • 2 full bathrooms and 1 convenient half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 2,139 square feet of interior space intelligently distributed across two floors • Main-floor gathering hub that joins the kitchen and family room for an open, connected feel • New construction highlighting professional craftsmanship and energy-efficient building standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming New Caney community known for its friendly residential atmosphere • Close proximity to local parks and green spaces for staying active and enjoying the outdoors • A well-located spot that balances a quiet retreat with easy access to nature and daily essentials The interior is built for a natural flow, with a broad open area on the main floor that serves as the center for daily life and hosting. While the lower level is dedicated to social interaction and includes the primary bedroom and a half bath for guests, the upper story provides a dedicated floor for the additional bedrooms. T. .. MLS# 61941510

18. 2026-05-18
    price $299,990 720-char remark

    Show marketing remark (720 chars)

    This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. A welcoming covered porch opens to a spacious foyer that flows into the open kitchen, dining, and family room. The family room features a sloped ceiling and direct access to the covered patio, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living. The private owner’s suite is tucked away at the rear of the home and includes a sloped ceiling, a large walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bathroom. Upstairs, a bright game room provides the perfect space for movie nights or playtime, while three generously sized secondary bedrooms each offer walk-in closets for ample storage.

19. 2026-04-09
    price $305,990 1492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1492 chars)

    Welcome to 17145 Pinewood Branch Drive, a beautiful new construction home located in New Caney, TX. This two-story residence features 2,139 square feet of living space designed with a spacious layout that separates the active social spaces on the first floor from the quiet sleeping quarters on the second level. Key Features: • 4 expansive bedrooms, including a primary suite positioned on the first floor for easy access • 2 full bathrooms and 1 convenient half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 2,139 square feet of interior space intelligently distributed across two floors • Main-floor gathering hub that joins the kitchen and family room for an open, connected feel • New construction highlighting professional craftsmanship and energy-efficient building standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming New Caney community known for its friendly residential atmosphere • Close proximity to local parks and green spaces for staying active and enjoying the outdoors • A well-located spot that balances a quiet retreat with easy access to nature and daily essentials The interior is built for a natural flow, with a broad open area on the main floor that serves as the center for daily life and hosting. While the lower level is dedicated to social interaction and includes the primary bedroom and a half bath for guests, the upper story provides a dedicated floor for the additional bedrooms. T. .. MLS# 61941510

20. 2026-04-07
    price $305,990 720-char remark

    Show marketing remark (720 chars)

    This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. A welcoming covered porch opens to a spacious foyer that flows into the open kitchen, dining, and family room. The family room features a sloped ceiling and direct access to the covered patio, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living. The private owner’s suite is tucked away at the rear of the home and includes a sloped ceiling, a large walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bathroom. Upstairs, a bright game room provides the perfect space for movie nights or playtime, while three generously sized secondary bedrooms each offer walk-in closets for ample storage.

21. 2026-04-03
    listed $311,990 Active 1492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1492 chars)

    Welcome to 17145 Pinewood Branch Drive, a beautiful new construction home located in New Caney, TX. This two-story residence features 2,139 square feet of living space designed with a spacious layout that separates the active social spaces on the first floor from the quiet sleeping quarters on the second level. Key Features: • 4 expansive bedrooms, including a primary suite positioned on the first floor for easy access • 2 full bathrooms and 1 convenient half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 2,139 square feet of interior space intelligently distributed across two floors • Main-floor gathering hub that joins the kitchen and family room for an open, connected feel • New construction highlighting professional craftsmanship and energy-efficient building standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a welcoming New Caney community known for its friendly residential atmosphere • Close proximity to local parks and green spaces for staying active and enjoying the outdoors • A well-located spot that balances a quiet retreat with easy access to nature and daily essentials The interior is built for a natural flow, with a broad open area on the main floor that serves as the center for daily life and hosting. While the lower level is dedicated to social interaction and includes the primary bedroom and a half bath for guests, the upper story provides a dedicated floor for the additional bedrooms. T. .. MLS# 61941510

22. 2026-04-02
    listed $311,990 Active 720-char remark

    Show marketing remark (720 chars)

    This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet designed for comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. A welcoming covered porch opens to a spacious foyer that flows into the open kitchen, dining, and family room. The family room features a sloped ceiling and direct access to the covered patio, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living. The private owner’s suite is tucked away at the rear of the home and includes a sloped ceiling, a large walk-in closet, and a well-appointed bathroom. Upstairs, a bright game room provides the perfect space for movie nights or playtime, while three generously sized secondary bedrooms each offer walk-in closets for ample storage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,307 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,210/yr (+$351/mo · 383.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,289
• − Management: −$2,289
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$3,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$909
• After-tax cash flow: $2,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $305,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $305,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $311,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Listed $311,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.