2411 Fairway · Dundalk, MD 21222

$150,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,218 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1943 5,246 sqft lot Est $202k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD SOME SWEAT EQUITY * HOME WAS IN GOOD LIVING CONDITION PRIOR TO SUSTAINING DAMAGE FROM THE 2025 HURRICANE * INSURANCE CLAIM HANDLED CLEANUP, ROOF AND ELECTRIC PANEL REPLACEMENT * JUST NEED TO COMPLETE DRYWALL TO MAKE IT LIVABLE AGAIN * NOT EXPECTED TO QUALIFY FOR CONVENTIONAL OR FHA FINANCING * AMAZING YARD FOR THIS END-OF-GROUP HOME * ARV EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS ABOUT 275K AND RENTAL VALUE COULD BE $2500 OR HIGHER, BUT DO YOUR OWN EVALUATION

Key facts

• Roof replacement
• Amazing yard
• Built 1943

Tags

• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• ELECTRIC PANEL REPLACEMENT
• AMAZING YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.2% in Dundalk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#16 in MD, #510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.24%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,188
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2411 Fairway	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,218 (0%)	0mo	$175,000	$144	100
2532 Liberty Pkwy	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,230 (+1%)	4mo	$175,000	$142	83
2529 Liberty Pkwy	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+1%)	6mo	$275,000	$224	80
56 Yorkway	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,275 (+5%)	11mo	$175,000	$137	80
6543 Saint Helena Ave	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,208 (-1%)	9mo	$200,000	$166	58
11 Kinship Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (-4%)	12mo	$200,000	$172	54
2634 Yorkway	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-9%)	11mo	$229,000	$207	54
6525 Saint Helena Ave	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,170 (-4%)	10mo	$145,000	$124	50
241 Baltimore Ave	0.62mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,274 (+5%)	6mo	$120,000	$94	50
1866 Marshall Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,350 (+11%)	9mo	$211,000	$156	48
6534 Riverview	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	10mo	$192,000	$167	48
6531 Parnell Ave	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,090 (-10%)	7mo	$199,900	$183	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,827
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $20,783
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21222

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,921 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,042/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2125 Cameron Dr Dundalk, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	697	$1,350	$1.94	43d	9	0.29mi
12 Leeway Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1358	$1,750	$1.29	43d	1	0.35mi
2624 Liberty Pkwy Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1110	$1,856	$1.67	43d	1	0.40mi
1955 Walnut Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	43d	1	0.51mi
266 Saint Helena Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1305	$1,900	$1.46	12d	1	0.52mi
6552 Parnell Ave Dundalk, MD	2.0	1.5	885	$1,500	$1.69	17d	1	0.61mi
6722 Brentwood Ave Unit 2FL Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	43d	1	0.65mi
7003 Dunmanway Dundalk, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	772	$1,345	$1.74	1d	13	0.65mi
6545 Baltimore Ave Dundalk, MD	2.0	1.0	852	$1,500	$1.76	43d	1	0.65mi
6537 Baltimore Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1272	$1,700	$1.34	1d	1	0.67mi
1533 Leslie Rd Dundalk, MD	4.0	1.0	1270	$2,000	$1.57	43d	1	0.76mi
2959 Liberty Pkwy Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,150	$1.45	43d	1	0.79mi
2976 Cornwall Rd Unit 1 Dundalk, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,590	$1.77	14d	1	0.82mi
1915 Merritt Blvd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,500	$2.07	43d	1	0.88mi
7508 Ives Ln Dundalk, MD	2.0	1.0	896	$1,750	$1.95	43d	1	1.05mi
1613 Elrino St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	43d	1	1.11mi
3443 Dunhaven Rd Dundalk, MD	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,900	$1.87	4d	1	1.18mi
628 47th St Apt RW2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	10d	1	1.19mi
630 47th St Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	43d	1	1.19mi
1504 Elrino St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	4d	1	1.23mi
3481 McShane Way Dundalk, MD	2.0	1.5	896	$2,150	$2.40	43d	1	1.26mi
3413 Yardley Dr Dundalk, MD	4.0	2.0	1185	$2,400	$2.03	43d	1	1.29mi
849 Loalan Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,850	$1.81	14d	1	1.32mi
7484 Rabon Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1499	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	1.34mi
6710 Hudson St Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1156	$3,500	$3.03	23d	1	1.38mi
7520 Durwood Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1110	$2,100	$1.89	43d	1	1.41mi
7901 Stratman Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	890	$1,647	$1.85	2d	1	1.41mi
3503 Sollers Point Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	776	$1,850	$2.38	12d	1	1.43mi
414 Westfield Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,300	$2.25	43d	1	1.44mi
530 47th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,750	$1.23	23d	1	1.46mi
7718 Meath Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	864	$2,200	$2.55	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $150,000 Active 514-char remark

   Show marketing remark (514 chars)

   TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD SOME SWEAT EQUITY * HOME WAS IN GOOD LIVING CONDITION PRIOR TO SUSTAINING DAMAGE FROM THE 2025 HURRICANE * INSURANCE CLAIM HANDLED CLEANUP, ROOF AND ELECTRIC PANEL REPLACEMENT * JUST NEED TO COMPLETE DRYWALL TO MAKE IT LIVABLE AGAIN * NOT EXPECTED TO QUALIFY FOR CONVENTIONAL OR FHA FINANCING * AMAZING YARD FOR THIS END-OF-GROUP HOME * ARV EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS ABOUT 275K AND RENTAL VALUE COULD BE $2500 OR HIGHER, BUT DO YOUR OWN EVALUATION

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,042
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$914
• After-tax cash flow: $5,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Dundalk

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundalk, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 59,407
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 59,407
• Household income: $64,141
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2566.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.44%
• Current HPI: 228.4218
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.09%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,042 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.