3851 Hermosa Dr · Kingsland, TX 78639

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2002 9,147 sqft lot $95/sqft · 67% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Kingsland offering a clean, well-maintained interior and a warm, inviting feel. This tidy and thoughtfully kept property sits on a spacious lot featuring a convenient circular drive, providing ample parking and easy access. Enjoy relaxed outdoor living from the back porch, where you’ll take in beautiful views of Packsaddle Mountain—an ideal backdrop for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Just down the street, you’ll find excellent access to Lake LBJ through the nearby POA park, making it easy to enjoy boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this cute and comfortable home delivers a great combination of location, simplicity, and Hill Country charm.

Key facts

• Access to lake lbj
• Circular drive
• Nearby poa park

Tags

• CIRCULAR DRIVE
• BACK PORCH
• VIEWS OF PACKSADDLE MOUNTAIN
• ACCESS TO LAKE LBJ
• NEARBY POA PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities include a lake and park

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; Driveway parking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Water connected; Sewer connected (public sewer)
• Home design: Single-story; Faces south; Resale property; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Sprinklers (in-ground); Level yard; Has view; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Main-level primary bedroom; Recessed lighting
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($867/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,161 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 435 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,901 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $453,765
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -66.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1039 Link Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,478 (-6%)	6mo	$439,000	$297	51
4808 River Oaks Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+8%)	15mo	$999,000	$588	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-19,727
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-11,341
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78639

• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,228

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,500 Active 42 DOM

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Kingsland offering a clean, well-maintained interior and a warm, inviting feel. This tidy and thoughtfully kept property sits on a spacious lot featuring a convenient circular drive, providing ample parking and easy access. Enjoy relaxed outdoor living from the back porch, where you’ll take in beautiful views of Packsaddle Mountain—an ideal backdrop for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Just down the street, you’ll find excellent access to Lake LBJ through the nearby POA park, making it easy to enjoy boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this cute and comfortable home delivers a great combination of location, simplicity, and Hill Country charm.

7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,500 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,500 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,500 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,500 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,500 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,500 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,500 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,500 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,500 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,500 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $188,500 Active 807-char remark

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Kingsland offering a clean, well-maintained interior and a warm, inviting feel. This tidy and thoughtfully kept property sits on a spacious lot featuring a convenient circular drive, providing ample parking and easy access. Enjoy relaxed outdoor living from the back porch, where you’ll take in beautiful views of Packsaddle Mountain—an ideal backdrop for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Just down the street, you’ll find excellent access to Lake LBJ through the nearby POA park, making it easy to enjoy boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this cute and comfortable home delivers a great combination of location, simplicity, and Hill Country charm.

18. 2026-05-01
    listed $188,500 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Kingsland offering a clean, well-maintained interior and a warm, inviting feel. This tidy and thoughtfully kept property sits on a spacious lot featuring a convenient circular drive, providing ample parking and easy access. Enjoy relaxed outdoor living from the back porch, where you’ll take in beautiful views of Packsaddle Mountain—an ideal backdrop for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Just down the street, you’ll find excellent access to Lake LBJ through the nearby POA park, making it easy to enjoy boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this cute and comfortable home delivers a great combination of location, simplicity, and Hill Country charm.

19. 2026-05-01
    listed $188,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Kingsland offering a clean, well-maintained interior and a warm, inviting feel. This tidy and thoughtfully kept property sits on a spacious lot featuring a convenient circular drive, providing ample parking and easy access. Enjoy relaxed outdoor living from the back porch, where you’ll take in beautiful views of Packsaddle Mountain—an ideal backdrop for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Just down the street, you’ll find excellent access to Lake LBJ through the nearby POA park, making it easy to enjoy boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this cute and comfortable home delivers a great combination of location, simplicity, and Hill Country charm.

20. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus
21. 2019-02-27
    soldstatus
22. 2017-07-31
    soldstatus
23. 2003-06-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,297/yr (+$108/mo · 89.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $1,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsland

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1161
• US rank: #20293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsland, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 8,719
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,719
• Household income: $57,742
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 202.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.30%
• Current HPI: 219.8651
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $150,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $150,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $150,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $169,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $169,500 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $169,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $188,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $188,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $188,500 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,448 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.