6780 Rubens Ct · Pine Hills, FL 32818

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1986 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HOME HAS BEEN 60% BURNT DOWN. DO NOT ENTER THE HOME. 4 bedrooms + enormous Media Room! - MASSIVE LOT – ONE OF THE BIGGEST IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD! . — a rare find in a peaceful, green neighborhood where homes have space to breathe. This solid concrete block home sits on a generously sized lot, offering unparalleled privacy and endless possibilities for outdoor living. The outdoor space is truly one of a kind, with plenty of room for a POOL, garden, basketball court, or even a private soccer field! There is also a Spacious SHED/extra storage (approximately 10ft x 13 ft )that provides space for tools or hobby projects. If you’ve been looking for a home with space, personality,

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Brick fireplace
• Massive bonus space

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• MASSIVE LOT
• PRIVATE FRONT YARD
• MASSIVE BONUS SPACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BRICK FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 4.9% in Pine Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#317 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,645/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 2059% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $180k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $169k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.66%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $16,866
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $51,987
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32818

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,645 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,815/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,613

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6926 Thousand Oaks Rd Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	1916	$2,950	$1.54	21d	1	0.18mi
4545 Malvern Hill Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,200	$1.10	21d	1	0.85mi
4547 Ashtubula Ct Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	2620	$2,600	$0.99	4d	1	0.85mi
7751 Beridale Ct Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	2790	$2,840	$1.02	3d	1	0.87mi
7809 Rex Hill Trl Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	2868	$2,850	$0.99	20d	1	0.92mi
7957 Rex Hill Trl Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	2868	$1,500	$0.52	23d	1	1.04mi
6018 Brookhill Cir Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	2252	$2,800	$1.24	21d	1	1.07mi
7275 Minippi Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1907	$2,600	$1.36	21d	1	1.43mi
3402 Bretwood Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,500	$1.29	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-02-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   price $169,000
3. 2026-02-20
   status Active
4. 2025-11-14
   status Pending
5. 2025-11-01
   listed $349,000 Active
6. 1986-10-01
   soldstatus $78,000
7. 1986-10-01
   soldstatus $78,000
8. 1985-02-01
   soldstatus $16,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,815 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,815 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$3,815
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,539
• − Management: −$2,539
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $7,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,828
• After-tax cash flow: $7,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Hills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #5362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Hills, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 60,203
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 59,114
• Household income: $63,061
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2059.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 14% White 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 21% Estonian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 40% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 25% Spanish 11% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.40%
• Current HPI: 321.5821
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.66%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+909.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Listed $349,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1985-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,815 · +123.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.