22483 Blazing Star Run Land · Connerton, FL 34637

$361,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $199/sqft · 8% below area Est $392k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Family room
• Dining room

Tags

• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $361k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.6% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $285,562 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,320
• List price: $361,000
• Delta: -7.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22496 Nebula Way	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,817 (0%)	10mo	$384,900	$212	88
22428 Nebula Way	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,817 (0%)	12mo	$379,240	$209	85
22162 Nebula Way	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,810 (-0%)	3mo	$355,000	$196	82
22400 Blazing Star Run	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+6%)	4mo	$380,090	$196	82
22588 Nebula Way	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+6%)	8mo	$355,390	$184	78
22640 Nebula Way	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+6%)	7mo	$370,000	$191	77
22450 Nebula	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+6%)	10mo	$417,000	$215	74
8182 Painted Sky Pl	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,870 (+3%)	6mo	$350,900	$188	73
22103 Blazing Star Run	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+6%)	12mo	$400,000	$207	63
8042 Painted Sky Pl	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+6%)	14mo	$382,775	$198	58
7796 Painted Sky Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-14%)	13mo	$344,900	$222	42
9205 Shadyside Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,061 (+13%)	4mo	$417,000	$202	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-51,035
• Equity at exit: $77,903

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-43,181
• Equity at exit: $74,170

Cash invested: $101,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 49 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.5 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $368,000 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 24 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,856 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,893
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$451 /mo · $5,415/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,158

Max offer price $326,438

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-114	+0% $-239	+5% $-364	+10% $-488
Rent	-10% $-464	-5% $-352	+0% $-239	+5% $-126	+10% $-13
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-147	base $-239	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,250
• Closing costs: $10,830
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22430 Blazing Star Run Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	40d	1	0.05mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,450	$1.31	75d	1	0.15mi
8879 Coqui Song Ln Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,300	$1.24	44d	1	0.21mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	108d	1	0.36mi
8938 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,550	$1.38	79d	1	0.39mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,145	$1.34	44d	1	0.41mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	29d	1	0.41mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	32d	1	0.41mi
9001 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,100	$1.31	62d	1	0.46mi
9094 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,100	$1.31	10d	1	0.53mi
8897 Flourish Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,149	$1.33	10d	1	0.68mi
21816 Crest Meadow Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2061	$3,200	$1.55	64d	1	0.74mi
8930 Ehren Cutoff Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,200	$1.70	10d	1	0.77mi
21648 Southern Charm Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2560	$3,000	$1.17	40d	1	0.79mi
9344 Bella Vita Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2072	$2,900	$1.40	75d	1	0.93mi
8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,795	$1.36	78d	1	1.02mi
8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,795	$1.36	74d	1	1.02mi
21286 Wistful Yearn Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	2492	$3,600	$1.44	7d	1	1.14mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	77d	1	1.17mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	80d	1	1.22mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	110d	1	1.24mi
21881 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,000	$1.25	4d	1	1.25mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	119d	1	1.30mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	100d	1	1.31mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,945	$1.21	77d	1	1.31mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	94d	1	1.31mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	119d	1	1.33mi
7847 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1807	$2,131	$1.18	44d	1	1.35mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	0d	1	1.36mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	10d	1	1.36mi
9890 Red Bay Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,595	$1.33	78d	1	1.45mi
7076 Gulf Cypress Ave Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,450	$1.34	0d	1	1.49mi
7076 Gulf Cypress Ave Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,450	$1.34	10d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 331-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $361,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,222
• − Property taxes: −$5,415
• − Insurance: −$1,805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,741
• − Management: −$2,741
• − Depreciation: −$10,502
• Taxable loss: −$9,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,198
• After-tax cash flow: $-668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,085–$27,255 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance to enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal by adding convenience and modernity. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B