44 Somerset Rd · Rocky Point, NY 11778

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1940 6,098 sqft lot $416/sqft · 22% below area Est $513k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A recently renovated North Shore home offered in turnkey condition on a 6,000 sqft lot in Rocky Point School District. The first floor includes an updated, eat-in kitchen with stainless appliances opening to a family room, alongside a full bathroom and laundry. The upper floor contains three bedrooms — including a primary with en suite bathroom — completed with new flooring, molding, and paint. Exterior features include a private side deck, detached storage, and off-street parking. The lot rises gently from the street, with mature trees providing privacy on three sides. The property is minutes to Hallock Landing Beach and within easy reach of the Long Island Sound shoreline and

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Stainless appliances
• Turnkey condition

Tags

• RENOVATED NORTH SHORE HOME
• TURNKEY CONDITION
• UPDATED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• FULL BATHROOM
• LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: PSEG electric service; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Block, frame, and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedrooms included)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup inside
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.6% in Rocky Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#717 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rocky Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #152 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A Edgar Imtermediate School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 592 students, 37% FRL); Rocky Point Middle School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 638 students, 36% FRL); Rocky Point High School (math 93% / reading 70%, grade A, #484 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 923 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 19% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $399k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,000 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $513,385
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -22.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Rosewood Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,045 (+9%)	7mo	$485,000	$464	71
53 Dryad Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	975 (+2%)	3mo	$445,000	$456	68
88 Friendship	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-1%)	9mo	$385,000	$405	68
377 Locust Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (+1%)	8mo	$480,000	$494	66
11 Clubhouse Dr	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-6%)	9mo	$375,000	$417	62
104 Maple Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-2%)	11mo	$455,000	$482	62
5 Uranus Rd	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,002 (+4%)	6mo	$480,000	$479	61
3 Pearl Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	8mo	$578,000	$525	60
53 Park Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (-4%)	10mo	$459,675	$500	59
21 Yucca Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (+6%)	5mo	$529,000	$519	54
30 Birch Rd	0.71mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,000 (+4%)	9mo	$485,000	$485	46
32 King Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,089 (+13%)	9mo	$486,000	$446	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-87,150
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-105,066
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11778

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,664/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,246

Max offer price $336,821

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-126	-5% $-239	+0% $-352	+5% $-465	+10% $-578
Rent	-10% $-573	-5% $-463	+0% $-352	+5% $-241	+10% $-131
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-251	base $-352	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Lincoln Dr Rocky Point, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	44d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $399,000 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $399,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $399,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-04-29
   listed $399,000 Active 824-char remark
5. 2021-10-08
   soldstatus $255,000
6. 2020-04-13
   historical
7. 2020-01-11
   price $255,000
8. 2019-10-30
   listed $259,500 New
9. 2006-10-20
   soldstatus $237,500
10. 1998-05-22
    soldstatus $76,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,664 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,204 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,540/yr (+$128/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$3,664
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$11,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,734
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocky Point Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624840
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $86,256
• Composite: 59.12/100
• National rank: #953
• State rank: #152 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rocky Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #717
• US rank: #13616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocky Point, NY
• City population: 12,919
• Population (ZIP): 12,919

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.24%
• Current HPI: 340.4944
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+421.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-11 Price Changed $255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-30 Listed $259,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $237,500 Public Records
• 1998-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,664 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.