138-25 31 Dr Unit 2E · New York, NY 11354

$255,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 246 Days on market

Built 1957 ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-

Key facts

• Built 1957
• Listed 246 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,749/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 4119% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.31%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-72,815
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-104,002
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11354

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,749 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA est. from 5 same-building comps: −$904
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,375

Max offer price $183,470

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-318	-5% $-406	+0% $-494	+5% $-582	+10% $-671
Rent	-10% $-712	-5% $-603	+0% $-494	+5% $-386	+10% $-277
Rate	-1.0pp $-366	-0.5pp $-429	base $-494	+0.5pp $-560	+1.0pp $-628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3132 Union St Unit 4G Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	650	$2,400	$3.69	9d	1	0.13mi
3132 Union St Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	625	$2,400	$3.84	20d	1	0.13mi
139-31 34th Ave Unit 3rd fl Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,500	$2.78	26d	1	0.20mi
140-16 34th Ave Apt 1003 Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,300	$3.00	26d	1	0.27mi
14016 34th Ave Unit 1210 Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	7d	1	0.27mi
140-16 34th Ave Unit 1113 Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	26d	1	0.28mi
140-16 34th Ave Unit 412 Flushing, NY	—	1.0	600	$2,250	$3.75	7d	1	0.28mi
140-16 34th Ave Unit 308 Flushing, NY	—	1.0	600	$2,250	$3.75	26d	1	0.28mi
2621 Union St Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	20d	1	0.30mi
13702 Northern Blvd Flushing, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$2,600	$3.06	9d	2	0.40mi
141-25 Northern Blvd Unit A14 Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	880	$2,350	$2.67	12d	1	0.41mi
3371 Prince St Unit 6K Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	768	$4,000	$5.21	16d	1	0.42mi
3371 Prince St Unit 8J Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	741	$4,075	$5.50	16d	1	0.42mi
3371 Prince St Unit 7C Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	773	$4,025	$5.21	16d	1	0.42mi
3371 Prince St Unit 8F Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	716	$4,050	$5.66	16d	1	0.42mi
145-18 34th Ave Unit 8A Flushing, NY	1.0	2.0	700	$2,400	$3.43	3d	1	0.42mi
13812 Northern Blvd Unit 7F Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$2,500	$4.17	13d	1	0.43mi
13416 35th Ave Unit 7E Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	681	$3,300	$4.85	26d	1	0.46mi
3641 Union St Unit 2B Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	968	$3,100	$3.20	26d	1	0.49mi
36-20 Parsons Blvd Unit 5D Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,600	$2.89	16d	1	0.51mi
137-02 Northern Blvd Unit 2F Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,550	$3.19	0d	1	0.52mi
137-02 Northern Blvd Unit 6K Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,850	$3.17	12d	1	0.52mi
13675 37th Ave Unit 3H Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$3,500	$4.67	0d	1	0.53mi
14238 37th Ave Unit 4C Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	820	$2,800	$3.41	26d	1	0.53mi
14424 37th Ave Unit 5B Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	560	$2,800	$5.00	26d	1	0.58mi
13835 39th Ave Flushing, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$4,500	$4.50	3d	2	0.60mi
13835 39th Ave Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	1014	$4,350	$4.29	26d	2	0.60mi
14489 38th Ave Unit 4C Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	790	$2,400	$3.04	26d	1	0.65mi
14809 Northern Blvd Flushing, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1056	$3,500	$3.31	15d	2	0.66mi
14943 35th Ave Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	775	$2,450	$3.16	4d	2	0.73mi
14943 35th Ave Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,400	$3.20	3d	1	0.74mi
13327 39th Ave Unit 3N Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	720	$3,600	$5.00	26d	1	0.76mi
3916 Prince St Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	530	$2,900	$5.47	16d	2	0.76mi
150-01 Northern Blvd Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	850	$2,800	$3.29	26d	1	0.80mi
40-10 149th St Fl 1 Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	16d	1	0.83mi
15019 26th Ave Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,800	$3.29	26d	1	0.83mi
14427 Sanford Ave Unit 7G Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	655	$3,500	$5.34	26d	1	0.87mi
13101 40th Rd Unit 2P Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	761	$3,300	$4.34	26d	1	0.88mi
4022 College Point Blvd Flushing, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$3,200	$3.25	26d	2	0.89mi
4028 College Point Blvd #912 Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	1083	$4,200	$3.88	26d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-07-22
   soldstatus $250,000 Closed 1-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1 chars)

   -

2. 2025-04-18
   status Pending 1-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1 chars)

   -

3. 2025-02-11
   listed $298,000 Active 1-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1 chars)

   -

4. 2024-06-23
   status Pending
5. 2024-03-05
   price $255,000
6. 2023-11-21
   price $279,000
7. 2023-10-21
   listed $299,000 Active
8. 2023-09-11
   price $310,000
9. 2023-06-03
   price $318,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,639
• − Management: −$2,639
• − HOA: −$10,848
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$9,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,385
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 53,028
• Household income: $66,010
• Rent vs Own: 57.6% rent · 42.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 4119.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Asian (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 64% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 66% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Chinese 43% Spanish 14% Korean 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.64%
• Current HPI: 257.0828
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-22 Sold (MLS) $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-11 Listed $298,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $255,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-21 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $310,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2023-06-03 Price Changed $318,000 RLS at REBNY