342 Tilleys Ln · Ezel, KY 40387

$79,995

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

Poor condition 0.58 ac lot $73/sqft · 48% below area Est $154k · 48% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Country Cottage in Morgan View and on Tilley's Lane. Close to Cave Run Lake. Minutes from Longbow Marina, Bangor Boat Ramp, Clay Lick and Warix Boat Ramps. Home has a bedroom downstairs with a huge upstairs that is open but could be split easily into 2 bedrooms. Downstairs has a mini-split heating / air system. upstairs has a like new window AC. Front porch sitting or large rear porch for sipping your coffee or favorite beverage will have you relaxing the way you wish to. Property backs up to Daniel Boone National Forest. Cabin is furnished for your ease of settling in. Storage Building on site remains with the property. Selling 'as is' but inspections are welcome! Don't Delay!

Key facts

• Like new window ac
• Front porch sitting
• Large rear porch

Tags

• MINI-SPLIT HEATING AIR SYSTEM
• LIKE NEW WINDOW AC
• FRONT PORCH SITTING
• LARGE REAR PORCH
• STORAGE BUILDING ON SITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($954 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.4% in Ezel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#375 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 14% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #150 of 165 in KY (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $70,395 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.75%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,824
• List price: $79,995
• Delta: -48.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
280 Easy St	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,155 (+5%)	7mo	$195,000	$169	75
42 Alley Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-1%)	2mo	$160,000	$147	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-173
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $16,359
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40387

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $79,995

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,999
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,995 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,995 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,995 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $79,995 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,900 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,900 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 159 DOM
11. 2025-12-22
    listed $89,900 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Charming Country Cottage in Morgan View and on Tilley's Lane. Close to Cave Run Lake. Minutes from Longbow Marina, Bangor Boat Ramp, Clay Lick and Warix Boat Ramps. Home has a bedroom downstairs with a huge upstairs that is open but could be split easily into 2 bedrooms. Downstairs has a mini-split heating / air system. upstairs has a like new window AC. Front porch sitting or large rear porch for sipping your coffee or favorite beverage will have you relaxing the way you wish to. Property backs up to Daniel Boone National Forest. Cabin is furnished for your ease of settling in. Storage Building on site remains with the property. Selling 'as is' but inspections are welcome! Don't Delay!

12. 2025-12-08
    historical
13. 2025-10-18
    price $89,900
14. 2025-06-13
    price $99,500
15. 2025-06-08
    listed $105,000 Active
16. 2025-02-28
    historical
17. 2024-08-31
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$289
• After-tax cash flow: $2,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Immediate attention is needed to address the deteriorating exterior and interior conditions.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major deck — Worn and uneven
• Major interior walls — Worn paint and cluttered

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint and organize interior — Enhances appearance and functionality
• Both Replace worn deck — Improves safety and curb appeal
• Both Repair and replace siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
deck · Worn and uneven	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Worn paint and cluttered	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint and organize interior — Enhances appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Replace worn deck — Improves safety and curb appeal ↑
• Both Repair and replace siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County
• NCES district ID: 2104290
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $31,371
• Composite: 19.78/100
• National rank: #8704
• State rank: #150 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ezel

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #17739

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,805

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,632 people
• By 2030: 12,211 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 11,408 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 10,612 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 8,790 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 6,944 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.5% · R 81.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+56.4 2016: R+55.0 2012: R+36.9 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.58%
• Current HPI: 215.8197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-24.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Listed $89,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $89,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $99,500 ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-08 Listed $105,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2024-08-31 Listed $119,000 ImagineMLS