1295 S Cawston Ave #47 · Hemet, CA 92545

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Built 1997 2,178 sqft lot Est $134k · 7% under $292/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Park Model In Senior Gated Community. 1997 Hallmark Sold 'as Is'. Owner To Do No Repairs. 02/11/04

Key facts

• 2,178 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot described as 0-1 unit/acre; Living area source listed as other
• HOA & community: Part of the Mtn Shadows association; Monthly association fee of $292; Association amenities include: pet rules, gym/exercise room, onsite property management, pool, clubhouse, spa, billiard room

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Security: Controlled access
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Located in a planned development; No common walls; Part of a community of about 250 units
• Construction: Year built provided by seller; Not an accessory dwelling unit
• Exterior features: Association pool; Street lighting

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry on main level; Bonus room; All bedrooms on main level; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the carport

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.9% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $125k implies a 381% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.71%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1295 S Cawston Ave #6	0.03mi	1/1.0	700 (0%)	3mo	$115,000	$164	96
1295 S Cawston Ave #118	0.09mi	1/1.0	700 (0%)	8mo	$125,000	$179	89
1295 S Cawston Ave #291	0.13mi	1/1.0	700 (0%)	8mo	$134,000	$191	87
1295 S Cawston Ave #391	0.09mi	1/1.0	750 (+7%)	2mo	$147,500	$197	82
1295 S Cawston #102	0.11mi	1/1.0	650 (-7%)	2mo	$136,000	$209	81
1295 S Cawston Ave #490	0.09mi	2/1.0 (+1)	650 (-7%)	1mo	$94,500	$145	78
1295 S Cawston #67	0.12mi	2/1.0 (+1)	750 (+7%)	4mo	$143,499	$191	74
1295 S Cawston Ave #66	0.11mi	2/1.0 (+1)	750 (+7%)	8mo	$127,000	$169	71
1295 S Cawston #263	0.12mi	1/1.0	600 (-14%)	2mo	$128,000	$213	69
1295 S Cawston Ave #340	0.09mi	1/1.0	600 (-14%)	6mo	$120,000	$200	67
1295 S Cawston #69	0.13mi	1/1.0	600 (-14%)	6mo	$127,000	$212	65
1295 S Cawston Ave #90	0.14mi	1/1.0	800 (+14%)	10mo	$128,000	$160	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,627
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $19,846
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92545

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $294/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$292
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 W Acacia Ave Hemet, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,595	$1.79	1d	10	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $292 · $3,504/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $125,000 Active
15. 2026-05-19
    historical $125,000
16. 2004-05-28
    soldstatus $26,000
17. 2004-03-15
    soldstatus $53,500 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Park Model In Senior Gated Community. 1997 Hallmark Sold 'as Is'. Owner To Do No Repairs. 02/11/04

18. 2004-01-26
    listed $60,000 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Park Model In Senior Gated Community. 1997 Hallmark Sold 'as Is'. Owner To Do No Repairs. 02/11/04

19. 1986-10-31
    soldstatus $20,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $294 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 223.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$294
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − HOA: −$3,504
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $874
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$210
• After-tax cash flow: $2,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hemet

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1056
• US rank: #25208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 137,670
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,982
• Household income: $63,770
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1813.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 35% Two or more races 17% Black 8% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.25%
• Current HPI: 356.9414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+509.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $125,000 CRMLS
• 2004-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-15 Sold (MLS) $53,500 CRMLS
• 2004-01-26 Listed $60,000 CRMLS
• 1986-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2014): $294 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.