446 Walnut Ave · Trenton, NJ 08609

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1925 2,087 sqft lot Est $318k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 446 Walnut Ave, a classic rowhome full of potential and ready for your vision. This property features a traditional layout with hardwood floors, charming fireplace detail, and a spacious front porch that adds to its character and curb appeal. Perfect opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to renovate and add value. With the right updates, this home can be transformed into a beautiful residence or income-producing rental. Conveniently located near local amenities, transportation, and neighborhood attractions. Bring your creativity and restore this property to its full potential. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Spacious front porch
• Local amenities
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CHARMING FIREPLACE DETAIL
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• NEIGHBORHOOD ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas for hot water
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Above-grade finished living area recorded by assessor
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Other structures above and below grade; Finished above-grade living area reported as 1,302 (per assessor)
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 16.7 x 125 feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on first upper level / total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Attic; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 6.0% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.05%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,688
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
288 S Logan Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+4%)	12mo	$240,000	$176	57
15 Pierce Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,360 (+4%)	12mo	$295,000	$217	54
212 Tioga St	0.31mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,127 (-13%)	2mo	$298,000	$264	54
872 Revere Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-8%)	8mo	$293,000	$244	51
877 Park Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+8%)	7mo	$320,000	$228	49
825 Lyndale Ave	0.54mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,443 (+11%)	1mo	$360,000	$249	48
212 Atlantic Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-4%)	14mo	$400,000	$321	48
156 Kent St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,470 (+13%)	0mo	$208,000	$141	44
436 Norway Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,237 (-5%)	12mo	$310,000	$251	39
307 Commonwealth Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,480 (+14%)	8mo	$275,000	$186	38
483 Cleveland Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,482 (+14%)	17mo	$219,000	$148	36
249 Lynwood Ave	0.60mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,108 (-15%)	15mo	$300,000	$271	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $24,118
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $85,455
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08609

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,802/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $876	-5% $831	+0% $786	+5% $740	+10% $695
Rent	-10% $602	-5% $694	+0% $786	+5% $878	+10% $970
Rate	-1.0pp $866	-0.5pp $826	base $786	+0.5pp $744	+1.0pp $702

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	22d	1	0.08mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	14d	1	0.12mi
239 Ardmore Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,750	$1.65	22d	1	0.26mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	22d	1	0.31mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	0.36mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	22d	1	0.50mi
428 Cleveland Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	22d	1	0.53mi
42 Grant St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.56mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	22d	1	0.59mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	22d	1	0.59mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 1 Hamilton Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	14d	1	0.60mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 2 Hamilton Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,850	$2.04	14d	1	0.60mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	0.61mi
34 Southard St #2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1808	$2,150	$1.19	22d	1	0.77mi
8 Joan Ter Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1397	$3,250	$2.33	22d	1	0.87mi
416 Klagg Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,300	$2.22	22d	1	0.88mi
176 Division St Apt 106 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	975	$1,700	$1.74	22d	1	0.89mi
255 Hollywood Dr Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1650	$2,950	$1.79	22d	1	0.91mi
21 Adella Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,000	$1.56	14d	1	0.93mi
25 Adella Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,050	$1.60	14d	1	0.94mi
77 Race St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	22d	1	1.00mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	22d	1	1.03mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,392	$1.55	22d	1	1.09mi
973 S Olden Ave Unit 2ND FLOOR Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1664	$1,850	$1.11	22d	1	1.09mi
901 Brunswick Ave #7 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	940	$2,800	$2.98	14d	1	1.10mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	14d	2	1.10mi
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	14d	4	1.13mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	14d	1	1.14mi
331 Ellis Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1190	$2,275	$1.91	22d	1	1.16mi
1040 Indiana Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1232	$2,950	$2.39	14d	1	1.16mi
705 Anderson St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	14d	1	1.18mi
203 Genesee St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1452	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	1.28mi
130 W Ingham Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	14d	1	1.29mi
210 Kuser Rd Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.5	1360	$2,700	$1.99	22d	1	1.29mi
234 Howell St Trenton, NJ	3.0	3.0	1656	$3,600	$2.17	22d	1	1.34mi
1103 Division St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1296	$2,000	$1.54	22d	1	1.36mi
24 New Trent St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,350	$1.76	14d	1	1.40mi
21 Bellevue Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	1.45mi
8 Belvidere St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,900	$1.51	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $178,888 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $178,888 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $178,888 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-03-16
   listed $178,888 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,893 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,091/yr (+$91/mo · 60.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,802
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,238
• − Management: −$2,238
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $7,279
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,747
• After-tax cash flow: $7,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 15,938
• Household income: $68,238
• Rent vs Own: 70.2% rent · 29.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 930.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Black 43% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 11%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Swiss 2% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.12%
• Current HPI: 275.8566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $178,888 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,802 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.