4186 Squaw Creek Trl · Wolf Lake, MI 49442

$38,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 1996 Fair condition Est $69k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1996
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,144
• HOA & community: Association with pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas water heater; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity available
• Home design: Ranch style; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1996; Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Cap rate 33.9% vs local median 4.0% in Wolf Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#594 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Oakridge Public Schools (suburban): math 17% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 540 in MI (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 289 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 438 units permitted in Muskegon County in 2024 (115 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Muskegon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $38,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.60%
• DSCR: 5.39
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4078 Sawgrass Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+4%)	2mo	$62,900	$53	84
4239 Squaw Creek Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+4%)	12mo	$74,500	$63	81
4105 Sawgrass Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	10mo	$80,000	$67	76
4153 Whisperwood Way S	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	8mo	$65,000	$52	73
1946 Spyglass Trl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+9%)	8mo	$80,000	$64	73
1966 Spyglass Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	11mo	$75,000	$60	70
4050 Larkspur Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-13%)	11mo	$72,900	$73	60
4045 Crestview Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+9%)	17mo	$56,000	$45	54
2379 Lincoln Park Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+6%)	6mo	$60,000	$49	52
1878 Snowberry Way	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,001 (-12%)	18mo	$47,000	$47	52
2317 Shamrock Ln	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+1%)	10mo	$35,000	$30	47
3941 Fleetwood Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+13%)	15mo	$80,000	$62	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $57,149
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.68×
• Total profit: $156,164
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49442

• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $900	-5% $887	+0% $874	+5% $861	+10% $848
Rent	-10% $761	-5% $817	+0% $874	+5% $931	+10% $988
Rate	-1.0pp $893	-0.5pp $884	base $874	+0.5pp $864	+1.0pp $854

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2129 Arrowhead Dr Muskegon, MI	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,299	$1.07	11d	1	0.22mi
4505 E Apple Ave Muskegon, MI	3.0	1.0	1410	$1,550	$1.10	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $38,000 Active
2. 2026-05-22
   listed $38,000 Active
3. 2026-05-22
   listed $38,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $10,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,523
• After-tax cash flow: $7,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 18 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations, focusing on the deck, exterior siding, windows, and interior painting to improve its curb appeal and functionality.

Repairs flagged

• Major deck — rotting and unstable
• Moderate exterior siding — some discoloration
• Moderate windows — some appear old

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace deck — improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both repair exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both replace windows — improves energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
deck · rotting and unstable	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
windows · some appear old	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$21,000–80,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace deck — improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both repair exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both replace windows — improves energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakridge Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,553
• Composite: 24.06/100
• National rank: #7762
• State rank: #389 of 540 in MI

Livability — Wolf Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #19391

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Muskegon County · 107,917 people
• Metro: Muskegon, MI
• Population (ZIP): 44,766
• Household income: $48,563
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1598.0

Population outlook (Muskegon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,032 people
• By 2030: 173,365 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 168,877 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 160,306 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 134,426 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 98,836 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 22% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Muskegon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.4% · R 50.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.6 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+17.8 2008: D+29.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.87%
• Current HPI: 287.0558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.21%
• Metro: Muskegon, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $38,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $38,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-22 Listed $38,000 SW Michigan MLS