4425 Algernon Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1976 7,148 sqft lot $131/sqft · 9% below area Est $204k · 9% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow, steal this beautiful house, best value in the neighborhood!! Designer contemporary colors and nice open floor plan with wood laminate flooring throughout. Granite counters in kitchens and upgrades galore for this beautiful starter​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ home.

Key facts

• 7,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,853
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -9.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4015 Donalbain Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-6%)	0mo	$168,000	$127	70
4555 Algernon Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-4%)	16mo	$205,000	$151	68
23110 Ludgate Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	13mo	$220,000	$149	68
3902 Adonis Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+4%)	13mo	$229,000	$157	66
4106 Donalbain Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-4%)	14mo	$239,999	$177	62
23303 Whittaker Way	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-4%)	12mo	$192,500	$142	60
23207 Naples Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (+11%)	16mo	$165,000	$106	57
4806 Quailgate Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-9%)	7mo	$205,000	$160	44
4515 Hickorygate Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-11%)	15mo	$224,900	$179	42
23811 Firegate Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (-3%)	22mo	$200,000	$147	39
4522 Quailgate Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+6%)	20mo	$199,999	$133	38
4227 Mossygate Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (+14%)	10mo	$150,000	$93	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,447
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,889
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,200/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    price $189,900 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Wow, steal this beautiful house, best value in the neighborhood!! Designer contemporary colors and nice open floor plan with wood laminate flooring throughout. Granite counters in kitchens and upgrades galore for this beautiful starter​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ home.

16. 2026-03-25
    listed $199,900 Active 333-char remark

    Show marketing remark (333 chars)

    Wow, steal this beautiful house, best value in the neighborhood!! Designer contemporary colors and nice open floor plan with wood laminate flooring throughout. Granite counters in kitchens and upgrades galore for this beautiful starter​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ home.

17. 2025-02-28
    historical $1,495
18. 2025-02-20
    listed $1,495
19. 2025-02-19
    historical $1,525
20. 2024-12-28
    listed $1,525
21. 2024-12-28
    historical $1,595
22. 2024-11-07
    listed $1,595
23. 2024-11-06
    historical $1,595
24. 2024-09-10
    listed $1,595
25. 2024-09-10
    historical $1,625
26. 2024-07-31
    listed $1,625
27. 2024-07-19
    historical $1,625
28. 2024-05-28
    historical $1,625
29. 2024-05-28
    listed $1,625
30. 2024-03-29
    listed $1,625
31. 2015-02-03
    soldstatus
32. 2015-01-26
    soldstatus Sold 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Wow! Complete remodel! Updated Kitchen with granite and custom backsplash, wood floors and Slate/Travertine tile throughout, with new Frieze carpet in the bedrooms. Fresh paint inside and out, new fixtures, fans and faucets. Must see, shows like new home.

33. 2015-01-21
    historical 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Wow! Complete remodel! Updated Kitchen with granite and custom backsplash, wood floors and Slate/Travertine tile throughout, with new Frieze carpet in the bedrooms. Fresh paint inside and out, new fixtures, fans and faucets. Must see, shows like new home.

34. 2015-01-11
    listed $109,900 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Wow! Complete remodel! Updated Kitchen with granite and custom backsplash, wood floors and Slate/Travertine tile throughout, with new Frieze carpet in the bedrooms. Fresh paint inside and out, new fixtures, fans and faucets. Must see, shows like new home.

35. 2007-06-12
    soldstatus
36. 2006-09-05
    soldstatus
37. 1997-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,200 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,200 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$5,200
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $438
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$105
• After-tax cash flow: $3,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+72.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Rental Removed $1,495 HARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed for Rent $1,495 HARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Rental Removed $1,525 HARMLS
• 2024-12-28 Listed for Rent $1,525 HARMLS
• 2024-12-28 Rental Removed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed for Rent $1,595 HARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Rental Removed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Listed for Rent $1,595 HARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Rental Removed $1,625 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $1,625 HARMLS
• 2024-07-19 Rental Removed $1,625 HARMLS
• 2024-05-28 Rental Removed $1,625 HARMLS
• 2024-05-28 Listed for Rent $1,625 HARMLS
• 2024-03-29 Listed for Rent $1,625 HARMLS
• 2015-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-01-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-01-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-01-11 Listed $109,900 HARMLS
• 2007-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,200 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.