147 Payne Dr · Natchitoches, LA 71457

$68,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · SingleFamily · 267 Days on market

Built 1977 9,099 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

Key facts

• 9,099 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.6% in Natchitoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#382 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, housing D+.
• Natchitoches Parish (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #41 of 98 in LA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Natchitoches Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $476 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natchitoches County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,632 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.93%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $15,381
• Equity at exit: $10,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $47,552
• Equity at exit: $5,957

Cash invested: $19,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71457

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $543/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $68,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $456	-5% $436	+0% $417	+5% $397	+10% $378
Rent	-10% $332	-5% $374	+0% $417	+5% $460	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $434	base $417	+0.5pp $399	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,225
• Closing costs: $2,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $68,900 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,900 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,900 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,900 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,900 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $68,900 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $68,900 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,900 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,900 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $68,900 Active 255 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $68,900 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $72,499 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,499 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,499 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,499 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,499 Active 247 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $72,499 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

18. 2026-04-28
    price $72,499 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

19. 2026-03-20
    price $74,600 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

20. 2026-03-20
    price $74,600 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

21. 2026-02-13
    price $78,499 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

22. 2026-02-13
    price $78,499 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

23. 2026-01-08
    price $81,900 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

24. 2026-01-08
    price $81,900 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

25. 2025-12-05
    price $86,200 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

26. 2025-12-05
    price $86,200 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

27. 2025-10-27
    price $90,700 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

28. 2025-10-27
    price $90,700 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

29. 2025-09-25
    listed $95,400 Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

30. 2025-09-25
    listed $95,400 Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home with carport parking. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

31. 2017-05-27
    listed $80,000
32. 2016-06-02
    listed $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $543 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $543 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,859
• − Property taxes: −$543
• − Insurance: −$344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,036
• − Management: −$1,036
• − Depreciation: −$2,004
• Taxable income: $4,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$989
• After-tax cash flow: $4,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchitoches Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201140
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -27.00%
• Median HH income: $30,204
• Composite: 26.36/100
• National rank: #7235
• State rank: #41 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natchitoches

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #23935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 27,214
• Population (ZIP): 25,485

Population outlook (Natchitoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,130 people
• By 2030: 37,412 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,550 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 33,580 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 29,268 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 23,909 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 45% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Natchitoches

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.2% · R 60.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -7.3pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+11.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+7.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.84%
• Current HPI: 103.9202
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+281.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $72,499 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $72,499 GSREIN
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $74,600 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $74,600 GSREIN
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $78,499 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $78,499 GSREIN
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $81,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $81,900 GSREIN
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $86,200 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $86,200 GSREIN
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $90,700 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $90,700 GSREIN
• 2025-09-25 Listed $95,400 GSREIN
• 2025-09-25 Listed $95,400 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-05-27 Listed $80,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-06-02 Listed $19,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $543 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.