8451 S Worden Rd · Three Points, AZ 85735

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 843 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 1975 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Flat usable Acre.Cute bungalow style house. Horse property. No HOA. Choice of Marana High or Flowing Wells High School. Close(within 5 miles) to VFW, Ace Hardware, Chevron Gas station, Buckelew Farm, Three point Restaurant, Trading Post, Medical Clinic, Family Dollar, Elementary and Middle School. Finish Rebuilding home or bring in Your own MFH.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Quiet location
• 1.25 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE RURAL GETAWAY
• GENEROUS LOT
• QUIET LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: Pima County - GR1; Lot dimensions approximately 166 x 364
• Financial info: No investor or rental income details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Wrought iron security door; Security gate
• Utilities: Water provided by a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Brick and wood frame construction; Rolled/hot mop roof; Built area reported (843) — year built not provided
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shed(s) on the property; Dirt road access; Subdivided lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes refrigerator and gas range
• Bedrooms: Listing indicates bedrooms (no detailed bedroom-level info provided)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Gas Range
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 4.7% in Three Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#286 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Altar Valley Elementary District (4418) (rural): math 15% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #202 of 249 in AZ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robles Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 389 students, 79% FRL); Altar Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 196 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $95k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.55%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $17,864
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $58,390
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $262/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $792

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $549	+0% $522	+5% $495	+10% $468
Rent	-10% $407	-5% $465	+0% $522	+5% $580	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $570	-0.5pp $546	base $522	+0.5pp $498	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    listed $95,000 Active
16. 2017-04-06
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Flat usable Acre.Cute bungalow style house. Horse property. No HOA. Choice of Marana High or Flowing Wells High School. Close(within 5 miles) to VFW, Ace Hardware, Chevron Gas station, Buckelew Farm, Three point Restaurant, Trading Post, Medical Clinic, Family Dollar, Elementary and Middle School. Finish Rebuilding home or bring in Your own MFH.

17. 2017-04-06
    status Pending 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Flat usable Acre.Cute bungalow style house. Horse property. No HOA. Choice of Marana High or Flowing Wells High School. Close(within 5 miles) to VFW, Ace Hardware, Chevron Gas station, Buckelew Farm, Three point Restaurant, Trading Post, Medical Clinic, Family Dollar, Elementary and Middle School. Finish Rebuilding home or bring in Your own MFH.

18. 2017-02-20
    price $22,000 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Flat usable Acre.Cute bungalow style house. Horse property. No HOA. Choice of Marana High or Flowing Wells High School. Close(within 5 miles) to VFW, Ace Hardware, Chevron Gas station, Buckelew Farm, Three point Restaurant, Trading Post, Medical Clinic, Family Dollar, Elementary and Middle School. Finish Rebuilding home or bring in Your own MFH.

19. 2016-11-18
    listed $28,000 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Flat usable Acre.Cute bungalow style house. Horse property. No HOA. Choice of Marana High or Flowing Wells High School. Close(within 5 miles) to VFW, Ace Hardware, Chevron Gas station, Buckelew Farm, Three point Restaurant, Trading Post, Medical Clinic, Family Dollar, Elementary and Middle School. Finish Rebuilding home or bring in Your own MFH.

20. 2015-07-07
    soldstatus $14,000 Closed 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Country living at an affordable price. Small home makes an ideal starter home, or a lovely little winter home. Property ideal for travel trailers, or bring your own home and dreams. Horse property near State land. close to new School and shopping

21. 2015-05-04
    status Pending 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Country living at an affordable price. Small home makes an ideal starter home, or a lovely little winter home. Property ideal for travel trailers, or bring your own home and dreams. Horse property near State land. close to new School and shopping

22. 2014-11-19
    listed $17,500 Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Country living at an affordable price. Small home makes an ideal starter home, or a lovely little winter home. Property ideal for travel trailers, or bring your own home and dreams. Horse property near State land. close to new School and shopping

23. 2013-07-01
    historical
24. 2012-12-07
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $262 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$365/yr (+$30/mo · 139.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$262
• − Insurance: −$1,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $5,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,207
• After-tax cash flow: $5,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altar Valley Elementary District (4418)
• NCES district ID: 0404770
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,645
• Composite: 14.52/100
• National rank: #9420
• State rank: #202 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Three Points

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #24371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Points, AZ
• City population: 10,893
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+280.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $95,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-04-06 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-04-06 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2017-02-20 Price Changed $22,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-11-18 Listed $28,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-07-07 Sold (MLS) $14,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-05-04 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2014-11-19 Listed $17,500 MLSSAZ
• 2013-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2012-12-07 Listed $25,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $262 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.