15248 Lynch Ct · Adelanto, CA 92301

$399,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2004 7,400 sqft lot Est $408k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property back on market at no fault of seller. 5 bedroom 2 bathroom single story home on quiet cul-de-sac. Home offers large master with walk in closet and indoor laundry room. Sellers are painting all Fascia/eves and repairing front porch by end of March. Priced to sell quickly.

Key facts

• 7,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-unit property; One common wall; No ADU; Has assessor parcel number 3135211140000

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Attached property; Single-story; One entry level
• Construction: Public records used for year built and living area source
• Exterior features: House; No pool; Sprinkler system (drip system); Curbs, sidewalks, street lighting, biking paths, park nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen open to family room; Formal dining area and in-kitchen eating area; Pots & pan drawers; Microwave, Refrigerator, Gas oven, Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Five main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry; Office; Living room; Family room; Has view; Entry located on main level; Main level has 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room; Gas and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in Adelanto — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,250 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gus Franklin Jr. (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 549 students, 63% FRL); Mesa Linda Middle (775 students, 77% FRL); Adelanto High (2,223 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,879/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1345% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; list at $400k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,858 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $407,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11840 Marshall	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-1%)	1mo	$395,000	$253	79
15386 Fremont Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (+4%)	5mo	$366,160	$223	76
15036 Carrolton	0.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+1%)	6mo	$395,000	$247	76
15466 Ross Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-1%)	8mo	$400,000	$256	73
11537 Winter Pl	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (+4%)	1mo	$425,000	$258	70
15824 Desert Pass	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (+0%)	0mo	$400,000	$252	59
15416 Kearny Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,359 (-14%)	4mo	$399,000	$294	57
11504 Star St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-11%)	3mo	$390,000	$279	55
11771 Dana Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+9%)	2mo	$463,000	$268	54
11542 Villa St	0.74mi	5/3.0	1,713 (+8%)	6mo	$460,000	$269	43
11409 Bellevue	0.57mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (+13%)	4mo	$475,000	$265	42
11483 Russet	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,815 (+15%)	5mo	$460,000	$253	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $203,023
• Equity at exit: $360,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $623,938
• Equity at exit: $776,918

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92301

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 631
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,827/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,269

Max offer price $345,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-82	-5% $-195	+0% $-309	+5% $-422	+10% $-535
Rent	-10% $-536	-5% $-422	+0% $-309	+5% $-195	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-207	base $-309	+0.5pp $-412	+1.0pp $-518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11860 Lupin Rd Adelanto, CA	4.0	2.0	1902	$2,350	$1.24	21d	1	0.38mi
14245 Tierra del Sur St Adelanto, CA	4.0	3.0	2100	$3,200	$1.52	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-17
    historical $399,900
15. 2026-04-27
    historical
16. 2026-03-01
    listed $399,000 Active
17. 2020-08-19
    soldstatus $259,000 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Property back on market at no fault of seller. 5 bedroom 2 bathroom single story home on quiet cul-de-sac. Home offers large master with walk in closet and indoor laundry room. Sellers are painting all Fascia/eves and repairing front porch by end of March. Priced to sell quickly.

18. 2020-08-19
    soldstatus $259,000

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Property back on market at no fault of seller. 5 bedroom 2 bathroom single story home on quiet cul-de-sac. Home offers large master with walk in closet and indoor laundry room. Sellers are painting all Fascia/eves and repairing front porch by end of March. Priced to sell quickly.

19. 2020-03-13
    listed $245,000 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Property back on market at no fault of seller. 5 bedroom 2 bathroom single story home on quiet cul-de-sac. Home offers large master with walk in closet and indoor laundry room. Sellers are painting all Fascia/eves and repairing front porch by end of March. Priced to sell quickly.

20. 2007-03-22
    historical
21. 2007-03-06
    listed $299,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,827 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,827 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥99°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$3,827
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,763
• − Management: −$2,763
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$10,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,603
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Valley Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636972
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,112
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8296
• State rank: #407 of 517 in CA

Livability — Adelanto

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1250
• US rank: #26338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adelanto, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 38,577
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,577
• Household income: $68,676
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1345.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 34% Black 15% White 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.09%
• Current HPI: 453.6071
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.68%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Coming Soon $399,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2020-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $259,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-19 Sold (MLS) $259,000 CRMLS
• 2020-03-13 Listed $245,000 CRMLS
• 2007-03-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-03-06 Listed $299,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,827 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.