4959 Colonnades Cir W · Medulla, FL 33811

$144,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1986 4,352 sqft lot $197/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOOKING FOR A GREAT PLACE TO CALL HOME? THIS COMMUNITY BOASTS GATED ENTRY, CLUBHOUSE WITH HEATED POOL & FITNESS CENTER, ALSO SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS. HOME FEATURES SPLIT FLOOR PLAN & BACKS UP TO CONSERVATION LOT, SO THERE ARE NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS. 1 CAR OVERSIZED CARPORT WITH PANELED WORKSHOP, BUILT IN WORK BENCH & SHELVING. HYPALON ROOF INSTALLED IN 2003 WITH LIFETIME GUARANTEE, NEWER PRO-AIR A/C, NEW WATER HEATER, STOVE & REFRIGERATOR IN 2010 & GARBAGE DISPOSAL NEW IN 2012. YARD RE-SODDED IN 2011 WITH NEW IRRIGATION CONTROL. CALL TODAY FOR YOUR PERSONAL TOUR!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Shuffleboard courts
• Covered carport

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE EXTERIOR STORAGE CLOSET
• HEATED POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association contact listed (name provided)
• Financial info: Total annual association fees approximately $2,364; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $197; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Association fee covers cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, internet, grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities, trash; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Community mailboxes; Golf carts allowed; Handicap modified; Senior community; Pets allowed (max 40 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; West-facing entry
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace with pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in — (manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Covered, screened patio/porch; Paved road access; Private maintained road; Irrigation equipment; Fishing pier (water extras)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#601 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $145k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.39%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-14,474
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,216
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $790/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$197
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,371

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1424 Bramblewood Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,700	$1.47	14d	1	0.30mi
4917 Malibu Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$1,195	$1.45	3d	1	0.36mi
1448 Marigold Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,055	$1.00	3d	1	0.36mi
1115 Dosseywood Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$1,650	$1.33	3d	1	0.57mi
1113 Pogonia Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$1,795	$1.27	23d	1	0.62mi
1106 Brook Meadow Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	3d	1	0.67mi
1106 Brook Meadow Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,900	$1.30	23d	1	0.67mi
5133 Old Road 37 Mulberry, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,565	$1.49	3d	1	0.79mi
1028 Harden Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	891	$1,200	$1.35	23d	1	0.83mi
5527 Gaur Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	942	$1,550	$1.65	23d	1	0.86mi
1089 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	764	$1,225	$1.60	3d	1	1.24mi
1105 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1456	$1,400	$0.96	23d	1	1.28mi
1143 Old South Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,299	$1.29	3d	1	1.32mi
1320 Caprice Dr Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1241	$2,598	$2.09	21d	25	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $197 · $2,364/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashpoolsecurity

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $144,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,203 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 52.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$790
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − HOA: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $364
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$87
• After-tax cash flow: $2,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Medulla

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #601
• US rank: #11528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+178.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-17 Sold (MLS) $37,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-06 Listed $39,780 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 1999-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1992-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $790 · +19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.