4000 Flynn St #107 · Bellingham, WA 98229

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2007 720 sqft lot Est $155k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Mill Wheel Village, one of Bellingham's best-kept secrets for low-priced homes near Lake Whatcom! This park is one of the few parks in town that is not age restricted. Not only that but these are financeable! This 2-bed 2-bath home is a great starter home or place to downsize. With new paint inside & out it's move-in ready. Heat pumps keep the house warm when cold and cool on the warm Bellingham summer evenings. Take a short walk from the house to the local pond or take just a few more steps and you're at Bloedel Donovan Park! The lot is low-maintenance and high-relaxation.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Bloedel donovan park
• Heat pumps

Tags

• LAKE WHATCOM
• NEW PAINT
• MOVE-IN READY
• HEAT PUMPS
• LOCAL POND
• BLOEDEL DONOVAN PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home remains on site
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Mill Wheel Park (park approved for sale); Clubhouse and common area in park; Approximately 155 homes in the park; Land lease: $600

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; 3 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Electric water heater; Community/Public water (water service included in HOA); Sewer service included in HOA; Power provided by PSE; Cable and internet connected (Xfinity)
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home (Fleetwood); One level; Faces west; Has a view; Property listed as residential, manufactured home in good condition
• Construction: Metal/vinyl and wood construction materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation with tie-downs; Manufactured after 06/15/1976
• Exterior features: Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Metal/vinyl and wood exterior; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with private access (bath off primary)
• Heating & cooling: High-efficiency heating (90%+); Ductless heating; High-efficiency cooling (90%+)
• Interior features: Water heater; Ceiling fan(s); Double-pane windows; Drapes; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room; Water heater located in primary closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $946 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.0% in Bellingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#102 in WA, #1,947 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Bellingham School District (urban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.20%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4000 Flynn St #132	0.06mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	17mo	$155,000	$215	79
4000 Flynn St #50	0.16mi	2/1.0	768 (+7%)	3mo	$105,000	$137	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $37,073
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $113,946
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98229

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $946

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2100 Electric Ave Bellingham, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$3,150	$3.58	13d	11	0.37mi
2233 Woburn St Bellingham, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	13d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $9,542
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,290
• After-tax cash flow: $9,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellingham School District
• NCES district ID: 5300420
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,678
• Composite: 48.49/100
• National rank: #4632
• State rank: #106 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bellingham

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #1947

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellingham, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 130,296
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 33,298
• Household income: $90,945
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -652.00%
• Current HPI: 413.1478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $149,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $287 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.