443 Holly St · Mount Carmel, TN 37645

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,515 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1963 0.37 ac lot $99/sqft · 23% below area Est $196k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch style home built in 1963. Large, level, fenced backyard. Natural gas floor furnace. One car attached garage and a shed in the backyard. Great garden space.

Key facts

• Fenced backyard
• Garden space
• 0.37 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• NATURAL GAS FLOOR FURNACE
• GARDEN SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Westridge subdivision; Directions: Take 11W to Main Street, left on Jefferson Ave and right on Holly Street.

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition; House structure
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Level and sloped topography; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 160; R-1 zoning; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Floor furnace heating; Natural gas heating; Has cooling and heating
• Interior features: Smoke detector(s); 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.2% in Mount Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mt Carmel Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #139 of 952 statewide, top 16%, 272 students, 0% FRL); Church Hill Middle School (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #168 of 333 statewide, top 51%, 350 students, 0% FRL); Volunteer High School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #101 of 332 statewide, top 30%, 1,045 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.00%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,551
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -23.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
424 Mimosa St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,651 (+9%)	13mo	$235,000	$142	65
400 Kaywood Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,313 (-13%)	8mo	$212,000	$161	64
410 Bay St	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,342 (-11%)	14mo	$188,000	$140	52
137 Meadow Springs Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,703 (+12%)	2mo	$345,000	$203	52
152 Nicole Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-8%)	11mo	$305,000	$218	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,115
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $50,926
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37645

• Home prices YoY: -7.3%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,366/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
432 Cypress St Mount Carmel, TN	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	13d	1	0.17mi
1504 Quartz Pl Kingsport, TN	3.0	2.5	1418	$1,859	$1.31	13d	6	1.15mi
1125 Faye St Kingsport, TN	3.0	3.0	1712	$2,400	$1.40	13d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 179-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $150,000 Active 179-char remark
3. 2025-11-21
   price $165,000
4. 2021-10-12
   soldstatus $156,500
5. 2007-06-15
   soldstatus $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,366
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,104
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$985
• After-tax cash flow: $5,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, TN
• City population: 5,504
• Population (ZIP): 5,504

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.04%
• Current HPI: 329.6095
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+111.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $150,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $165,000 TVRMLS
• 2021-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $156,500 Public Records
• 2007-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,366 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.