436 Caraway Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$299,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · Land · 216 Days on market

Built 2024 8,499 sqft lot $272/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Step into the feeling of finally being home. This brand-new, move-in ready 4-bedroom, 3-bath home in the gated community of Tuscany Preserve was designed for the way people actually live today — open, bright, and effortlessly comfortable. With nearly 1,900 sq. ft. of living space, the soaring cathedral ceilings and open-concept layout immediately make the home feel expansive yet welcoming, perfect for quiet mornings or hosting family and friends. At the heart of the home, the kitchen shines with modern white cabinetry, premium appliances, and generous counter space that makes everything from weeknight dinners to holiday gatherings feel special.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Tranquil lake
• Splash pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OVERSIZED POOL
• TRANQUIL LAKE
• SPA
• SPLASH POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-701 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $300k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,589 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.01%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-77,271
• Equity at exit: $65,586

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-121,113
• Equity at exit: $63,207

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1155
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$272
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,969

Max offer price $198,589

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-494	-5% $-597	+0% $-701	+5% $-804	+10% $-908
Rent	-10% $-865	-5% $-783	+0% $-701	+5% $-619	+10% $-536
Rate	-1.0pp $-550	-0.5pp $-625	base $-701	+0.5pp $-779	+1.0pp $-858

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	25d	1	0.05mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	5d	1	0.06mi
922 Centaury Dr Unit 1 Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	2166	$1,900	$0.88	16d	1	0.10mi
404 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,775	$1.34	16d	1	0.12mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	25d	1	0.12mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	16d	1	0.28mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$2,345	$1.56	4d	1	0.37mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	5d	1	0.37mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	13d	1	0.38mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	5d	1	0.39mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	16d	1	0.39mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	25d	1	0.40mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	25d	1	0.41mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	5d	1	0.42mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	5d	1	0.44mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	25d	1	0.44mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	25d	1	0.44mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	5d	1	0.44mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	5d	1	0.48mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	25d	1	0.54mi
407 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,600	$0.86	13d	1	0.56mi
319 Erie Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,765	$1.35	16d	1	0.57mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	5d	1	0.57mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	16d	1	0.58mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	5d	1	0.59mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	16d	1	0.59mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	25d	1	0.61mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	5d	1	0.61mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	5d	1	0.61mi
145 Ocean Bluff Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,500	$1.20	25d	1	0.62mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	5d	1	0.63mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	25d	1	0.65mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	5d	1	0.66mi
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	5d	1	0.68mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	5d	1	0.70mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	16d	1	0.73mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	5d	1	0.75mi
2005 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$1,719	$1.03	5d	1	0.76mi
1951 Michigan Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1562	$2,060	$1.32	16d	1	0.76mi
2006 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,040	$1.08	5d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $272 · $3,264/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-17
   price $299,999
3. 2026-01-16
   price $309,000
4. 2025-11-07
   price $320,000
5. 2025-09-23
   listed $339,000 Active
6. 2025-08-12
   historical
7. 2025-06-16
   listed $315,000 Active
8. 2024-12-31
   historical
9. 2024-05-27
   listed $349,999 Active
10. 2023-01-20
    historical
11. 2022-08-05
    status Active
12. 2022-08-01
    listed $384,999 Active
13. 2021-07-29
    soldstatus $62,500
14. 2014-03-05
    soldstatus $29,800
15. 1995-03-23
    soldstatus $9,494

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − HOA: −$3,264
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$13,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,315
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3059.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $299,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $309,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-27 Listed $349,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-01 Listed $384,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2014-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $29,800 Public Records
• 1995-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $9,494 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $439 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.