22038 Matera Vista Ln · Houston, TX 77447

$269,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,759 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,477 sqft lot $153/sqft · 17% below area Est $326k · 17% under $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautifully designed one-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a spacious backyard, all-brick exterior, and a covered patio ideal for outdoor relaxation. With professionally selected interior finishes, this home offers a stylish and welcoming atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Nestled in Cypress Green, a dynamic 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy scenic surroundings, access to top-rated Waller ISD schools, and an abundance of amenities including a resort-style pool, splashpad, waterpark, sports courts, dog park, and more. Come experience the lifestyle—schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Covered patio
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• ALL-BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED PATIO
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• SPLASHPAD
• WATERPARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($412/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $251,039 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,490
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -17.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,759 (0%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	99
21639 Carbonari Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-1%)	1mo	$337,990	$193	89
22102 La Scorza Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+2%)	1mo	$324,990	$181	87
21643 Carbonari Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-6%)	1mo	$333,990	$202	87
21623 Carbonari Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-6%)	1mo	$328,990	$199	87
22214 San Lioni Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,908 (+8%)	1mo	$333,990	$175	82
22002 Maddaloni View Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,922 (+9%)	1mo	$316,990	$165	81
22106 La Scorza Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+7%)	0mo	$307,990	$164	80
19307 Licola Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-8%)	0mo	$276,990	$170	79
21927 Maddaloni View Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,013 (+14%)	1mo	$352,990	$175	72
19071 Cetara Villa Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-10%)	0mo	$249,990	$158	63
21002 Echo Manor Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,513 (-14%)	0mo	$262,000	$173	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-48,829
• Equity at exit: $40,256

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-67,772
• Equity at exit: $23,344

Cash invested: $75,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,467

Max offer price $269,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $128	+0% $34	+5% $-59	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-65	+0% $34	+5% $134	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $103	base $34	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,498
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,450	$1.17	22d	1	0.14mi
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	44d	1	0.39mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,951	$1.02	2d	1	0.54mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,863	$1.16	2d	1	0.61mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,931	$0.91	5d	1	0.72mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	3d	1	0.85mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,712	$1.32	1d	1	0.92mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	2d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover this beautifully designed one-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a spacious backyard, all-brick exterior, and a covered patio ideal for outdoor relaxation. With professionally selected interior finishes, this home offers a stylish and welcoming atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Nestled in Cypress Green, a dynamic 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy scenic surroundings, access to top-rated Waller ISD schools, and an abundance of amenities including a resort-style pool, splashpad, waterpark, sports courts, dog park, and more. Come experience the lifestyle—schedule your tour today!

2. 2026-05-01
   price $269,990 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover this beautifully designed one-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a spacious backyard, all-brick exterior, and a covered patio ideal for outdoor relaxation. With professionally selected interior finishes, this home offers a stylish and welcoming atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Nestled in Cypress Green, a dynamic 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy scenic surroundings, access to top-rated Waller ISD schools, and an abundance of amenities including a resort-style pool, splashpad, waterpark, sports courts, dog park, and more. Come experience the lifestyle—schedule your tour today!

3. 2026-03-20
   price $292,990 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover this beautifully designed one-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a spacious backyard, all-brick exterior, and a covered patio ideal for outdoor relaxation. With professionally selected interior finishes, this home offers a stylish and welcoming atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Nestled in Cypress Green, a dynamic 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy scenic surroundings, access to top-rated Waller ISD schools, and an abundance of amenities including a resort-style pool, splashpad, waterpark, sports courts, dog park, and more. Come experience the lifestyle—schedule your tour today!

4. 2026-03-19
   listed $304,990 Active 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover this beautifully designed one-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a spacious backyard, all-brick exterior, and a covered patio ideal for outdoor relaxation. With professionally selected interior finishes, this home offers a stylish and welcoming atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Nestled in Cypress Green, a dynamic 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy scenic surroundings, access to top-rated Waller ISD schools, and an abundance of amenities including a resort-style pool, splashpad, waterpark, sports courts, dog park, and more. Come experience the lifestyle—schedule your tour today!

5. 2026-03-19
   historical

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Discover this beautifully designed one-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a spacious backyard, all-brick exterior, and a covered patio ideal for outdoor relaxation. With professionally selected interior finishes, this home offers a stylish and welcoming atmosphere from the moment you walk in. Nestled in Cypress Green, a dynamic 646-acre master-planned community in Hockley, TX, residents enjoy scenic surroundings, access to top-rated Waller ISD schools, and an abundance of amenities including a resort-style pool, splashpad, waterpark, sports courts, dog park, and more. Come experience the lifestyle—schedule your tour today!

6. 2026-02-14
   price $314,990
7. 2026-01-28
   price $329,990
8. 2026-01-14
   listed $334,990 Active
9. 2026-01-14
   historical
10. 2025-12-08
    price $334,990
11. 2025-11-25
    price $339,990
12. 2025-10-22
    listed $344,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$4,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$977
• After-tax cash flow: $1,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This beautifully designed one-story home in Cypress Green offers a stylish and welcoming atmosphere with modern finishes and a spacious backyard. It is move-in ready and can be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $292,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $304,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $314,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $329,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $334,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $334,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $344,990 HARMLS