Plan 1416 Modeled Plan · Arcola, TX 77583

$237,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily · 660 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Spacious great room * Kitchen breakfast bar * Den * 6-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Kitchen USB charging port * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Swimming pool * Playground * Close to golf courses * Pond * Clubhouse

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 660 days

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY

🏗️ New construction. The $237,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,852.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Arcola — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,425 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1737 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 59d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 660 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,435 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 660 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,852
• List price: $237,995
• Delta: -14.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6807 Alamitos Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-2%)	6mo	$239,000	$171	76
6807 Bardsdale Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+7%)	9mo	$222,000	$146	61
931 Modesto Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+11%)	4mo	$275,000	$175	52
619 Palo Alto Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+12%)	15mo	$270,000	$170	52
711 Alpine Falls Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-8%)	2mo	$250,000	$193	51
1035 Cattle Chute Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+2%)	18mo	$269,900	$186	50
6422 Pomona Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+12%)	14mo	$300,650	$190	35
6431 Downey Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+12%)	17mo	$299,900	$189	33
6410 Pomona Ct	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,605 (+13%)	11mo	$315,000	$196	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-60,991
• Equity at exit: $41,280

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-88,284
• Equity at exit: $23,937

Cash invested: $77,518 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.3 mo (30%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $264,997 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 155 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1737
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,452
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,153/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,422

Max offer price $252,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-71	+0% $-167	+5% $-262	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-341	-5% $-254	+0% $-167	+5% $-79	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-27	-0.5pp $-96	base $-167	+0.5pp $-238	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,213
• Closing costs: $8,306
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	108d	1	0.14mi
6822 Altadena Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,970	$1.12	18d	1	0.43mi
7731 Suffolk Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,500	$1.36	10d	1	0.84mi
423 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,879	$1.37	4d	1	1.03mi
407 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,195	$1.29	64d	1	1.03mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,830	$1.54	59d	1	1.17mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	139d	1	1.33mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	139d	1	1.35mi
414 Manor Ave Arcola, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,500	$1.39	30d	1	1.42mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	117d	1	1.43mi
8419 Ideal Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,125	$1.16	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $237,995 Active 660 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $237,995 Active 659 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $237,995 Active 658 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $237,995 Active 657 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $237,995 Active 656 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $237,995 Active 655 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $237,995 Active 654 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $237,995 Active 653 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $237,995 Active 652 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $237,995 Active 651 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $237,995 Active 650 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $237,995 Active 649 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $237,995 Active 648 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $237,995 Active 642 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $237,995 Active 641 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $237,995 Active 637 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $237,995 Active 636 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $237,995 Active 635 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $237,995 Active 634 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $237,995 Active 633 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $237,995 Active 631 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $237,995 Active 630 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $237,995 Active 629 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $237,995 Active 628 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $237,995 Active 627 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $237,995 Active 626 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $237,995 Active 625 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $237,995 Active 624 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $237,995 Active 623 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $237,995 Active 622 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $237,995 Active 621 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $237,995 Active 620 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $237,995 Active 619 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $237,995 Active 618 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $237,995 Active 617 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $237,995 Active 616 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $237,995 Active 615 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $237,995 Active 614 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $237,995 Active 612 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $237,995 Active 611 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $237,995 Active 610 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $237,995 Active 609 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $237,995 Active 606 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $237,995 Active 604 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $237,995 Active 603 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $237,995 Active 601 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $237,995 Active 599 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $237,995 Active 598 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $237,995 Active 597 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $237,995 Active 596 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,508
• − Property taxes: −$4,153
• − Insurance: −$1,384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,123
• − Management: −$2,123
• − Depreciation: −$8,054
• Taxable loss: −$6,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,635
• After-tax cash flow: $-364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Arcola, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and modernize the interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 53/100

Livability — Arcola

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1425
• US rank: #24358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $237,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $235,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $245,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $240,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $249,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $248,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $247,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $246,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $245,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $244,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $242,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $240,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $238,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $236,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $234,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $231,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $228,995 Zillow
• 2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $238,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Listed $248,995 Zillow