9840 Allendale St · Pasadena Hills, FL 33545

$275,590

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,666 sqft · Townhouse · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $165/sqft · 7% below area Est $297k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Luxury is in the details of this charming two-story townhome. The first floor enjoys an airy design among the spacious living room, kitchen and dining room, opening to the covered patio for serene outdoor moments. Upstairs, an adaptable central loft leads to two secondary bedrooms and the tranquil owner's suite. The owner's suite is in a privately situated corner, showcasing a full-sized bathroom and large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Central loft
• Covered patio
• Full sized bathroom

Tags

• TWO STORY TOWNHOME
• COVERED PATIO
• CENTRAL LOFT
• FULL SIZED BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $276k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Watergrass Elementary School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 865 students, 41% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 831 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 78d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,492 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,973
• List price: $275,590
• Delta: -7.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10398 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.92mi	3/2.5	1,634 (-2%)	1mo	$270,000	$165	61
10198 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.82mi	3/2.5	1,666 (0%)	14mo	$260,000	$156	53
10171 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.83mi	3/2.5	1,634 (-2%)	13mo	$245,900	$150	51
10233 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.86mi	3/2.5	1,634 (-2%)	14mo	$236,850	$145	50
10203 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.84mi	3/2.5	1,634 (-2%)	14mo	$242,900	$149	50
32038 Pop Ash Pl	1.00mi	3/2.5	1,801 (+8%)	2mo	$273,000	$152	50
10207 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.85mi	3/2.5	1,634 (-2%)	14mo	$236,850	$145	50
10221 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.85mi	3/2.5	1,634 (-2%)	14mo	$244,900	$150	50
10186 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.81mi	3/2.5	1,787 (+7%)	13mo	$288,500	$161	42
10193 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.84mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,541 (-8%)	14mo	$234,400	$152	36
10211 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.85mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,541 (-8%)	14mo	$237,250	$154	36
10237 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way	0.86mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,541 (-8%)	14mo	$229,900	$149	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-59,075
• Equity at exit: $41,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-86,942
• Equity at exit: $23,828

Cash invested: $77,165 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 47 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 282.0 mo (0%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,900 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 831
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,134/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,411

Max offer price $257,769

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $-28	+0% $-123	+5% $-218	+10% $-314
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-212	+0% $-123	+5% $-34	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-53	base $-123	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-267

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,898
• Closing costs: $8,268
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9848 Allendale St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,145	$1.29	10d	1	0.04mi
9851 Feaster Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,800	$1.08	115d	1	0.07mi
9864 Allendale St Wesley Chapel South, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	119d	1	0.09mi
9844 Allendale St Wesley Chapel South, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,150	$1.29	29d	1	0.09mi
32985 Twin Flowers Ave Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,500	$1.38	0d	1	0.13mi
9853 Branching Ship Trce Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,650	$1.46	108d	1	0.48mi
10019 Curley Rd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,900	$1.46	64d	1	0.48mi
32433 Windmill Frg Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,095	$1.45	10d	1	0.49mi
9493 Rally Spring Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,500	$1.13	117d	1	0.58mi
9610 Rally Spring Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,750	$1.36	100d	1	0.64mi
10110 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,995	$1.32	119d	1	0.81mi
10114 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	116d	1	0.81mi
10171 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	119d	1	0.81mi
10199 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,925	$1.18	10d	1	0.83mi
10203 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	60d	1	0.83mi
10121 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	119d	1	0.84mi
10268 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$1,950	$1.09	32d	1	0.84mi
10268 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	5d	1	0.84mi
10250 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,979	$1.18	119d	1	0.87mi
10334 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,000	$1.22	119d	1	0.87mi
10268 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,895	$1.23	10d	1	0.88mi
10268 Honey Hammock Way Unit 10268 San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,975	$1.28	43d	1	0.88mi
10288 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,099	$1.17	78d	1	0.89mi
10321 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	117d	1	0.89mi
10300 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,899	$1.14	40d	1	0.89mi
32034 Sapna Chime Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2214	$3,000	$1.36	10d	1	0.90mi
32067 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	94d	1	0.91mi
10375 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,900	$1.14	64d	1	0.92mi
10356 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,890	$1.13	94d	1	0.92mi
32235 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,050	$1.25	27d	1	0.95mi
32003 Conchshell Sail St Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2037	$2,500	$1.23	10d	1	0.95mi
32201 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,000	$1.22	64d	1	0.96mi
32010 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	64d	1	0.96mi
32009 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,900	$1.26	113d	1	0.97mi
32146 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,050	$1.14	115d	1	0.99mi
32127 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	119d	1	1.00mi
31921 Conchshell Sail St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1848	$2,642	$1.43	0d	13	1.04mi
32040 Griffin Sands Ln San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.0	1616	$2,350	$1.45	10d	1	1.04mi
32077 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$2,100	$1.36	119d	1	1.06mi
10888 Quail Grove Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,400	$1.42	119d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,590 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,590 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $275,590 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,590 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,590 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,590 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,437
• − Property taxes: −$4,134
• − Insurance: −$1,378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − Depreciation: −$8,017
• Taxable loss: −$6,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,497
• After-tax cash flow: $19/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,330–$24,990 screening

This charming two-story townhome is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodlands Elementary School A FL #141/2,144 Nat'l #1,513/41,679 Middle Thomas E. Weightman Middle School C FL #246/571 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Wesley Chapel High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B